Sunday, March 14, 2021

They are not worried, but we cannot control it.

"When you continue to get an upward forecast for the economy and earnings, it is very hard to get bearish because the news keeps getting better and there is also the news on the pandemic," said Hugh Albert Johnson about US markets. "We are about 7% overvalued but believe me it is very hard to get bearish when the news is this good." "The consensus forecasts put 2021 GDP growth at just over 5% worldwide, and near 6% in the United States. I think growth could top 6% worldwide and 8% in the United States, an astonishing pace for a developed country," wrote Ruchir Sharma. Bond investors seem to agree. "A climb in long-dated Treasury yields stoked by US growth expectations has contributed to investors yanking more than $15 billion from bond funds this week, the largest outflow in a year, according to figures released Friday," wrote Carla Mozee. "The 10-year yield was pushed up to 1.639%, its highest in more than a year and the Nasdaq composite dropped 1.5%." "Germany's 10-year borrowing costs jumped 26 basis points in February, the biggest monthly rise in over three years, with similar moves seen across the euro area. Policymakers from president Christine Lagarde to chief economist Philip Lane have expressed unease. Markets want to know the game plan," reported Reuters. "The European Central bank said on Thursday it would accelerate money-printing to keep a lid on euro zone borrowing costs, signalling to sceptical markets that it is determined to lay the foundation for a solid economic recovery," reported Reuters." "Making matters worse, markets are starting to worry about the massive experiment in budget-deficit monetization being carried out by the US Federal Reserve and Department of the Treasury through quantitative easing (a form of Modern Monetary Theory or 'helicopter money'," wrote Prof Nouriel Roubini. "To be sure, inflation may eventually emerge if the effects of monetized fiscal deficits combine with negative supply shock to produce stagflation." While markets worry about inflation, which may force central banks to reduce liquidity and may even make them start raising interest rates, "Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said US inflation risks remain subdued as the Biden administration pumps $1.9 trillion in pandemic relief into the economy and the return to full employment comes into view," the Hindustan Times quoted Bloomberg. Meanwhile, "Oil prices jumped more than $1 a barrel, hitting their highest levels in 14 months, after OPEC and its allies agreed not to increase supply in April as they await a more substantial recovery in demand amid the coronavirus pandemic." While inflation is not of much concern in US and Europe, the rate of retail inflation in India in February jumped to 5.03% from 4.06% in January. Why? "Price of domestic cooking gas, LPG has doubled to Rs 819 per cylinder in the last seven years while the increase in taxes on petrol and diesel has swelled collections by over 459 percent, Oil Minister Dharmender Pradhan said." In response to India begging OPEC to increase supplies, Saudi Arabia responded that we should use the 16.71 million barrels of crude bought in April-May 2020 at an average cost of just $19 per barrel. Why are we begging? Because reducing taxes will balloon fiscal deficit and not doing so will result in very high inflation. Either way, the rupee will tank. That's when the writing will appear on the wall.  

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