Tuesday, March 16, 2021

What if petrol jumps to Rs 120 per liter?

"The wholesale price-based inflation rose for the second consecutive month to a 27-month high of 4.17 percent in February, as food, fuel and power prices spiked. The WPI inflation was 2.03 percent in January and 2.26 percent in February last year." Core inflation was at 5.5 percent in February. "The headline WPI inflation is expected to harden further to around 9-9.5 percent, and the core-WPI is likely to climb to 7-7.5 percent by May 2021, before displaying a more gradual moderation to 4 percent by the end of 2021, said Aditi Nayar." "Retail inflation based on consumer price index (CPI) rose to three-month high of 5.03 percent in February from 4.06 percent in January." "Economists are already raising red flags over the retail inflation trajectory," wrote Aparna Iyer. "Part of the rise in core inflation has also been the surge in fuel prices through transportation component. Here, a $10 per barrel rise in the Indian crude basket pushes up domestic fuel prices by at least Rs 5." "The recent fall in headline inflation, it fell from 7.61% in October 2020 to 4.06% in January 2021, before rising to 5.03% in February, was largely a reflection of food inflation, which fell sharply from 11% in October 2020 to just 1.96% in January 2021," wrote Roshan Kishore. "The non-food basket CPI grew at 5.39% in October 2020, moderated slightly to 5.23% in November 2020 and has been rising steadily in the last three months to reach 5.78% in February 2021." "Price of domestic cooking gas, LPG has doubled to Rs 819 per cylinder in the last seven years while the increase in taxes on petrol and diesel has collections by over 459 percent, Oil Minister Dharmender Pradhan said." Taxes constitute over 60% of the price paid by consumers at pumps, but there is no plan to cut taxes on fuel said the minister. Why should they cut taxes, when the Center has collected Rs 6.85 trillion from taxes on petrol and diesel in the last 3 financial years, from 2018-19 to 2020-21. "The subject matters over which the Center can tax and raise revenue are limited only by the imagination of its bureaucrats. The subject matters over which states can raise revenue are expressly limited," wrote MS Ananth. "State governments are unlikely to relinquish means of raising revenue and allow fuel to be subsumed by GST." Especially as states are being shortchanged of up to Rs 3 trillion by the Center in compensation for a fall in GST collections, while the Center has collected 19.9% of its revenue from cess and surcharges which it does not share with the states. No one is talking about the rupee. Inflation rate in the US was 0.4% in February and 1.7% over the last 12 months. In the euro zone, inflation rose from -0.3% in December 2020 to 0.9% in January 2021. As prices rise faster in India the rupee buys less every month. It has to adjust lower against the dollar, the euro and the yen which will instantly increase prices of imports, including oil. What happens if oil hits Rs 120 per liter? Any answers?

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