Wednesday, March 10, 2021

Shouldn't we decide what is good for us?

 "The extraordinary policy response by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to the pandemic was based on four themes," wrote Niranjan Rajadhyaksha. 1. It has poured massive amounts of liquidity by expanding its balanced sheet "by Rs 12.25 trillion in the twelve months to early March 2021", by buying government bonds through open market operations (OMO). The RBI has also been buying dollars which releases rupees into the market. 2. It has been buying long term bonds while selling short term ones, known as Operation Twist, in order to suppress borrowing costs of the government. 3. The RBI is issuing forward guidance that it will keep interest rates low, real interest rates have been at negative levels for over a year now. 4. "RBI brought in a host of temporary regulatory actions to prevent firms from failing or banks being hit by the shock. Those have ranged from an interest moratorium to allowing lenders to restructure bad loans." In an interview, Governor of RBI Shaktikanta Das said, "The benign financing conditions resulting from RBI's action in reducing interest rates and making liquidity available in abundance have been utilised by corporates to raise money and deleverage their balance sheets. There was a lot of repayment or previously availed high-cost loans." "The evergreening of loans is a well-known exercise, in which banks revive a loan on the verge of default by granting further loans to the same firm," wrote Prasanna Tantri. "The consequences of evergreening are well known: a reduction in reported defaults in the short run, followed by an eventual explosion in default rates." In 2014, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power the price-to- earnings ratio of the Nifty 50 was at 23, wrote Andy Mukherjee. "The multiple is currently at 36 and climbing higher", because of "$85 billion of liquidity pumped into the banking system in less than two years". "Monday's price (of petrol) of 97.6 rupees a liter in Mumbai ($5 per gallon) was 65 percent higher than in New York." As people get financially stressed, Fitch Ratings "estimates a hole of anywhere between $15 billion to $58 billion in government-controlled banks' capital base under varying degrees of loan losses". Despite RBI's efforts at suppressing yields, global investors fear a fall in bond prices because of higher inflation and "have pulled out $14 billion from India in the past 12 months". Banks have written off Rs 1.15 trillion in the first 9 months of this financial year. "Though recent numbers show a dip, India's consumer price inflation has been well over the Monetary Policy Committee's target range of 4% plus/minus 2% for most of 2020; and the medium to long-term outlook is not bright either," wrote Mythili Bhusnurmath. "I have already said the yield curve is a public good...," said Das. But, who decides "public good"? We, the public, or a superannuated civil servant rewarded with a juicy sinecure to carry out the government's hatchet job? Europe, Scandinavian countries and Japan have negative interest rates because they are rich and have low inflation. We have poverty with high prices. In his eagerness to help the government Das should not make it worse. 

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