Wednesday, March 24, 2021

What's the use of increasing wages if prices go up?

"At least half a dozen states of India are in a rush to pass a law that reserves 75% of all jobs for locals," wrote Ajit Ranade. Last year the Supreme Court struck down 100% reservation in teaching posts for Scheduled Tribes in Andhra Pradesh. In 2019, Andhra Pradesh passed a law to make it compulsory for industries to reserve 75% of jobs for locals.  Recently, Haryana passed a similar law reserving 75% of jobs in private companies for locals. But, "What if we change the discourse from job reservations to minimum wage legislation?" asked Ranade. For decades it was believed that a minimum wage will reduce employment but new studies have shown that a minimum wage "had no effect on employment". "The empirically confirmed fact is that minimum wages are mostly paid to unskilled workers who work in non-tradable sectors. Raising that minimum makes it possible to pass on the cost through a price increase to consumers. Instead of it being funded by the fiscal pot, their welfare is paid for by a large diffused mass of consumers." "Raising the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour , as President Joe Biden has proposed, would cost 1.4 million jobs over the next four years while lifting 900,000 people out of poverty, according to a Congressional Budget Office report," reported CNBC. "Employers would pass some of the increased costs on to consumers in the form of higher prices, and those higher prices, in turn, would lead consumers to purchase fewer goods and services," the report found. "Employers would consequently produce fewer goods and services, and as a result, they would tend to reduce their employment of workers at all levels." Passing on higher wages to consumers in India will raise retail inflation which was 5.03% in February, compared to 4.06% in January. This despite the fact that, "The coronavirus pandemic may have shrunk India's middle-class population by 32 million and driven 75 million below the poverty line in 2020, a Pew Research Center report said," wrote Asit Ranjan Mishra. It could have been much worse if the rupee had fallen in value like other Asian currencies. "The rupee has advanced 1.3% in March, boosted by $2.4 billion of overseas purchases of local stocks, including inflows to initial public offerings," reported Business Standard. Private consumption will pick up in the next few quarters, said Moody's. "As per the report, core inflation is expected to see a more controlled rise in 2021, although food-price or fuel-driven inflation can become a recurring factor, weighing of households' disposable income." Threat of inflation is keeping buyers away from RBI bond offerings. "Indian government bonds are the 'good stuff' and must sell," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "Yet a yield of just about 6 percent on 10-year rupee paper from a barely investment grade has none of the kick of the near-21 percent rate of return offered by a D-rated private borrower on a five-year note." "Central taxes on petrol and diesel rose by over 307% in the last six years, allowing the Union government to mop up a sum of Rs 2.94 lakh crore (Rs 2.94 trillion) through taxes on fuel between April 2020 and January 2021," reported The Times of India. Household savings rate fell from 21% in the April-June quarter of 2020 to 10.4% of GDP in the July-September quarter, reported the Reserve Bank. Increasing costs even slightly, as Ranade proposes, will hit household spending. Increasing minimum wage and cost of goods as a result will benefit no one. Can't apply US statistics to India.    

No comments: