Wednesday, March 03, 2021

Why so complacent about high prices?

"Since late 2008, central banks have cut interest rates, and printed and pumped a huge amount of money into the global financial system, in order to keep interest rates low in the hope of driving economic growth. At the same time governments have borrowed more and upped their expenditure to pump prime economic growth," wrote Vivek Kaul. "The Covid pandemic has added $24 trillion to the global debt mountain over the last year a new study has shown, leaving it at a record $281 trillion and the worldwide debt-to-GDP ratio at over 355%," reported Reuters. "South Africa and India recorded the largest increases just in terms of government debt ratios." "All this money sloshing around has led to multiple financial and real estate bubbles across the world, something that central banks have stayed away from pricking." The price to earnings (PE) ratio of the Dow Jones Industrial Average stood at 31.47 on 26 February. "It was at 19.75, a year earlier." The Indian stock market Nifty 50 PE ratio stood at 40.71 yesterday. "The bull-run in global stocks fuelled by cheap cash and reflation hopes will continue for at least another six months but a rise in bond yields as inflation expectations grow could throw a spanner in the works, Reuters polls found." "The US recovery is accelerating, putting it on course to outperform China's V-shaped rebound, according to JP Morgan Chase & Co economists," reported the Economic Times. The House of Representatives passed a $1.9 trillion stimulus bill which aims to pay $1,400 to every American earning less than $75,000 per year, reported CNN. The bill has yet to clear the Senate but cash in hand would immediately stimulate spending and may cause an increase in prices. US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in August last year that the Fed will target an average inflation of 2%, meaning that it will tolerate an inflation rate higher than 2%  to balance this period of low inflation. The consumer price index in January in the US was 0.3%. Yesterday, "Benchmark 10-year US Treasuries (yields) rose to 1.477 percent as investors bet US inflation could pick up as economic recovery gathers steam, driven by government stimulus and further progress in vaccination programs." "A rise in nominal bond yields in the euro zone would be welcome if it is accompanied by higher inflation expectations, showing that the European Central Bank's anti-pandemic stimulus is working, ECB policymaker Isabel Schnabel said," reported Reuters. Why do all these economic data in the US and Europe matter to us in India? Because inflation is always high in India. Retail inflation was 4.1% in January, lowest in 16 months. Rising prices means that the rupee buys less. Sky rocketing petrol and diesel prices will feed into prices of everything including food and that will fuel inflation. At some point the rupee has to adjust against the dollar and a weaker rupee will increase cost of imports, including oil. That's when inflation will jump, markets will tank and growth will collapse. How long will verbal stimulus work?  

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