Other countries sucking in commodities. We pay the price.

"In recent months, global agencies and institutions have rushed to upgrade their forecasts of India's economic growth for the new fiscal year hat starts on 1 April," wrote an editorial in the Mint. The "Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) projected the country's gross domestic product (GDP) to expand 12.6% in 2021-22", the Indian government predicts a nominal GDP growth of 15.4% while the Reserve Bank (RBI) thinks it will be 10.5%. However, there are many uncertainties. There is the danger of a second wave of virus infections. "India, which experts say may be witnessing a second wave of the pandemic, has witnessed nearly 100,000 cases of the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) in the second week of March, data by the Union ministry of health and family welfare showed," reported Hindustan Times. "There is no clear way to contain asset inflation, and anxieties over retail price instability do not look overblown." Indian stock market indices have been at record levels recently, though they pulled back a little yesterday. "The liquidity magic isn't working on the bond markets, though," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "In India, the story is different. The entire yield curve has moved higher. This isn't a sign of optimism about growth, but a worry about rising oil prices and the hard-to-square arithmetic of next fiscal year's targeted budget deficit of 6.8% of GDP, on top of an expected 9.5% shortfall in 2020-21." Global debt investors "have pulled out more than $14 billion from India in the past 12 months even as the local equity market has had $29 billion of net inflows from overseas". In the US, investors pulled $15 billion out of bond funds in the last week. This is because investors are apprehensive about inflation as the US economy recovers and the stimulus bill passed this week will inject $1.9 trillion into the economy through higher unemployment benefits, child benefits and $160 billion for the coronavirus vaccine program, which, it is expected, will deliver a kick to economic growth. "The consensus forecasts put 2021 GDP growth at just over 5% worldwide, and near 6% in the United States," wrote Ruchir Sharma. "I think growth could top 6% worldwide and approach 8% in the United States, an astonishing pace for a developed country." "Oil has climbed 75% since the start of November", "Copper -- used in everything from cars to washing machines and wind turbines -- is trading at levels seen a decade ago. Food prices have jumped every month since May," wrote Wallace, Burton, de Sousa and Chakraborty. "Meanwhile, Goldman and some of its Wall Street rivals are talking of a new commodities 'supercycle' -- an extended period during demand drives prices well above their long-run trend." "In the auction held last week, RBI sold some 10-year debt papers at 6.22% compared with 6% in the previous auctions," wrote Gopika Gopakumar."The yield of the 10-year benchmark bond on Wednesday closed at 6.25%, up 5 basis points from its previous close of 6.2%." This maybe just the beginning as retail inflation jumped to 5.03% last month as consumer goods companies raise prices of detergents, soaps, creams, toothpaste, edible oils and tea to "offset rising costs of key raw materials". Let the milk, urine and dung of the indigenous cow be the "Foundation of Indian economy", advised Governor of Gujarat Acharya Devvrat. Brilliant. Patiala peg of Gaumutra all round.