It may not be our fault, but we will be made to pay.

"Fiscal year 2020-21 ends today, March 31. With an estimated annual contraction of 8% in GDP, 2020-21 has been the worst year in terms of economic performance in India since 1950-51, the earliest period for which data is available," wrote Roshan Kishore. Agriculture was the best performing sector with growth of 3%, but since it has a share of only 16% in gross value added (GVA), it could not prevent the economy from contracting. Services, with a share of 54.6% in GVA, suffered the most. The periodic labor force survey (PLFS) for April-June 2020 revealed a doubling of unemployment rate to 20%. The Center for Monitoring Indian Economy "(CMIE) estimates also suggest that the pandemic has led to further worsening of the gender gap in India's labor market." The labor force participation rate (LFPR) for women was 21%, one of the lowest in the world, even before the pandemic, wrote Udit Misra. "Sneha Dwivedi, the youngest member in her family of six in Atiswa village of Lucknow district, is a 'Shakti' micro-entrepreneur with Hindustan Unilever (HUL), distributing soaps, detergents and sanitisers to households," reported Times of India. She is among 140,000 working for HUL's Project Shakti, "A rural distribution network of HUL, Shakti was set up to enhance livelihoods and build opportunities for women micro-entrepreneurs in the hinterland." Life is still uncertain for millions of migrant workers who somehow made it back to their villages when the lockdown was suddenly enforced with just 4 hours notice. "The total number of migrant workers who returned to their home states was 1,04,66,152 (10.44 million, 1.04 crore), Santosh Kumar Gangwar, minister of state of labour and employment, said in a parliamentary response in September last year." Retail inflation fell to 4.1% in January 2021 but jumped to 5.03% in February. "The 2020 inflationary surge and subsequent moderation was largely driven by food prices, but over the past few months non-food inflation has been slowly gaining momentum in the economy." "The central government's plan to borrow a massive Rs 12 lakh crore Rs 12 trillion) in 2021-22 and additional Rs 80,000 crore (Rs 800 billion) in fiscal 2021 from the market has spooked the bond market," reported The Economic Times. "Already, the borrowing program of the central government for this financial year till date has been around Rs 13.17 lakh crore and those of state governments around Rs 7.17 lakh crore." So, what about revenues? "The Central government has collected only 47 percent of the revised full-year target of Rs 6.90 lakh crore (Rs 6.90 trillion) GST collection," reported Financial Express. "The coronavirus pandemic may have shrunk India's middle-class population by 32 million and driven 75 million below the poverty line in 2020, a Pew Research report said," wrote Asit Ranjan Misra. Despite strenuous government effort, "Official data of tax return filers in the current season showed that the number of individuals filing income tax returns claiming no taxable income has gone up," reported Mint. That will mean aggressive tax terrorism. Terrifying.      

We know about corruption in New York, do we know about ours?

In March 2020, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo denied hospital treatment to elderly patients suffering from coronavirus infections and then understated the number of deaths in nursing homes to help fellow Democrat Joe Biden win the presidential election in November. Cuomo has been accused of sexual harassment by several women in his staff. Despite all these serious accusations against him Cuomo has refused to resign till today. "The global media has heckled, mocked and ridiculed every step that India has taken during the pandemic," fulminates Abhishek Banerjee. "And yet, there is a year-long silence around thousands of elderly people being sent to their deaths in New York." "We have a term for this in India, taken from Bihar of the 1990s. It is called Jungle Raj." "The streets of new York now belong to murderers, car thieves and armed criminal gangs." "Because of mental hang-ups going back to our colonial past, we tend to give way too much weight to Western media opinion about India." Just because China is persecuting Uighurs because they are Muslims, does it mean that India should do the same? According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), India came in at 140th position in the list of nominal per capita GDP in US dollars in 2020. Not just foreigners, we Indians are groaning under the weight of corruption and tyranny. "The lower base of our administrative system is politically so powerful that one can not implement rule of law as a whole, despite the will to do it," wrote Shashi Shekhar. "In our system, only the faces change, neither such 'Dastoor' (convention), nor 'Dastoori' (kickbacks)." "After the Mumbai blasts, a committee headed by former home secretary N.N. Vohra prepared a report about the nexus between criminals, bureaucrats and politicians. Only 11 pages were made public two years later, of the 110-page report submitted in 1993." "The Supreme Court held that the government was not obliged to disclose the report." "Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government did not consult key ministries and states while imposing the world's strictest coronavirus lockdown a year ago, according to an investigation by the BBC's Jugal Purohit and Arjun Parmar. The day the entire nation was locked up there were only 519 confirmed cases and 10 reported deaths in India. Unlocking was started on 8 June 2020 and has proceeded in phases till today, but even as the restrictions were being lifted the number of new infections were soaring to nearly 100,000 per day. Millions of migrant workers suddenly thrown out of work decided to walk, along with little children, hundreds of miles back to their villages. Hundreds died of starvation, exhaustion and pre-existing diseases. Thousands were killed in accidents on roads. Text messages between Indian Republic TV anchor Arnab Goswami and former head of a TV-rating company Partho Dasgupta showed that "Goswami had prior knowledge of the (Balakot) attack and that it was designed to drum up support for Modi in his re-election bid in pending parliamentary elections". We have a list of wrongdoing in New York. Journalists trying to disclose corruption in India will be in great personal danger. Protecting criminals exposes us to crimes. We are hapless.

It's not just about knees.

"Agriculture and allied sectors account for about 18% of the Indian economy, but around 40% of employment," wrote Prof Mahambare, Prof Dhanaraj and Sharma. Analysing workers in prime age group of 20-59 years, "Our estimates show that there has been a dramatic reduction in prime working-age Indians engaged in agriculture, with their share falling to 23.3% in 2018-19 from 40% in 2004-05." "There was an even sharper decline in the share of young adults (20-29 years) who work in agriculture." As a country develops, workers shift from agriculture to industries which offer sustained employment and higher wages. "However, what is particular to the Indian experience is that this decline is not mirrored in a corresponding increase in the proportion of prime-age adults taking up non-farm jobs. Rather, it is reflected in an increase in the share of prime adults leaving the labor market." Lack of employment leads to crime. "Unemployed, illiterate, school drop-outs, arrested for the first time -- these are common threads that connect almost every person arrested for snatching in Delhi since 2018, highlighting how one of the most serious concerns on the streets of the national capital is also its biggest gateway to crime," reported Hindustan Times. Snatching is forcible theft of property of pedestrians. In India, gold chains around their necks and handbags make women easy targets for such criminals. So brazen have they become that a woman was stabbed to death for resisting efforts to snatch her chain. Ironically, although women seem to be victims of unemployed young men, India has one of the highest unemployment among women. At 21%, labor force participation rate (LFPR) of women in India is less than that of Afghanistan, Somalia and Pakistan, wrote Udit Misra. "In other words, 79% of Indian women (aged 15 years and above) do not even seek work." The fall in the LFPR for women is mainly due to withdrawal of rural women from the labor force. "A member of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party, Mr (Chief Minister of Uttarakhand Tirath Singh) Rawat went on to describe ripped jeans as clothing that both caused and was symptomatic of moral turpitude (among women) and criticised parents for allowing, their children, especially girls, to wear them," reported Geeta Pandey on BBC. "The overall filings of ITRs (income tax returns) including individuals, corporates and businesses shrank 6.5 percent in FY20," reported The Indian Express. FY20 means 1 April 2019 to 31 March 2020, before the effect of the coronavirus pandemic. "The coronavirus pandemic may have shrunk India's middle-class population by 32 million and driven 75 million below the poverty line in 2020, a Pew Research report said," wrote Asit Ranjan Misra. If our mothers, sisters and daughters are unhappy it is not surprising that "India has been ranked 139 out of 149 countries in the list of UN World Happiness Report 2021 released on Friday which is topped by Finland." Most people are miserable, women in greater proportion.    

Anything goes, if people are stupid.

On becoming president, Joe Biden "stewarded an economic relief bill amounting to $1.9 trillion through Congress", equivalent to "close to 9% of US GDP in 2019, the pre-pandemic year", wrote Prof Pulapre Balakrishnan. "It comes on top of the stimulus of $3.5 trillion undertaken by the Trump administration. These two packages combine to 25% of the country's GDP in 2019." In contrast, "The latest issue of 'The Fiscal Monitor' published by the IMF shows additional public expenditure by the central government (in India) up to December 31 in response to Covid-19 amounting to 3.1% of GDP. The counterpart figure for the US is 16.7%. Of this, the spending on health was a mere 0.2% in India and 2.3% for the US." Percentages do not indicate the true difference in spending. The US spent 25% of $21.43 trillion GDP on  stimulating its economy and 2.3% on healthcare for a population of 333 million, while India spent 3.1% of its GDP of around $2.9 trillion in 2019 on stimulus and a minuscule 0.2% on the health of a humongous 1,390 million people. "Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharman's budget aims to spend big to push growth. Outlays in key areas such as healthcare and infrastructure have been ratcheted up to spur economic activity," wrote Nikhil Inamdar for BBC. "Presenting a budget in a year of economic contraction for only the third time in India's history, Sitharaman chose to spend her way into securing a V-shaped recovery and placed most weightage on infrastructure, with a eye on the multiplier effect of building roads, rail lines and ports," wrote Aparna Iyer and Asit Ranjan Misra. "Detractors will cry about missed opportunity," wrote Ajit Ranade. "For now, though, the country is a clear winner, and kudos to the finance minister for a spectacular budget." "If the economy were indeed on a V-shaped recovery path, why are the government's tax projections for 2021-22 lower than what they were a year ago? asked Roshan Kishore. "There is an additional problem with what is a premature withdrawal of the fiscal boost. a lot of sequential recovery, especially in rural areas, was contingent on the government's support." There can be only two interpretations for the limited spending by the Indian government, wrote Balakrishnan. One is the government's economic ideology, and the second is that "it simply does not care". There maybe a third explanation and that is, the government is broke, having squandered Rs 11 trillion in 4.5 years it earned till December 2018 through enormous taxes on petrol and diesel, Rs 6.58 trillion from 2018-19 to 2020-21 from taxes, even as prices of fuel went up, and a handout of Rs 1.76 trillion from the Reserve Bank's (RBI) reserves. "The working class in India has historically been treated with a combination of contempt and apathy. Several surveys and reports highlighted the extent of loss of livelihoods and the corresponding hunger situation," wrote Rajendran Narayanan. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is trying out his new luxury plane while visiting Bangladesh which is celebrating its 50th anniversary of independence from Pakistan in 1971. That's the way the money goes. And pop go the people. Stupid people.

Let others worry, we are sanguine.

Following a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on 16-17 March, "Federal Reserve officials continued to project near-zero interest rates at least through 2023, while upgrading their economic outlook to reflect greater optimism over the US recovery from Covid-19 amid a surge in Treasury yields," wrote Craig Torres. "Excluding food and energy, inflation is forecast to hit 2.2% this year and fall to 2% in 2022." "US central bankers left asset purchases unchanged at $120 billion a month and repeated that this pace will be maintained until 'substantial further progress' is made on their employment and inflation goals." Funds rate was kept at 0-0.25%. "Is the Federal Reserve losing control of the bond market?" asked Mohamed El-Erian, is liquidity responsible for bond market volatility and will this volatility affect the US economy. "The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury note on Monday rose to 1.200%, its highest since March 2020," reported Reuters. Yields closed at 1.674% on Friday. "The recent pace of the rise in yields in the US Treasury market has been unsettling, according to several major bond fund managers who worry the market could be viewed as disorderly if the pace of rises continues." "The risk is significant and rising that the Fed will be less able to tame the bond market anytime soon because the high-probability means to do so -- active yield curve control -- comes with its own set of significant risks to market functioning, efficient price signalling and pro-productivity/growth allocation of resources throughout the economy," El-Erian feels, but the US economy will not be affected. "Indian government bonds are the 'good stuff' and must sell," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "Yet, a yield of just about 6% on 10-year rupee paper from a barely investment grade sovereign has none of the kick of the near 21% rate of return offered by a D-rated private borrower on a five-year note." "Foreigners have pulled out billions of dollars from India's bond markets over the past 12 months. Even domestic banks have been shunning debt auctions ever since the government's 1 February budget delivered the unpleasant news of a planned 6.8% deficit for the upcoming fiscal year, on top of a 9.5% shortfall in the year that will end on 31 March." The reason for the lack of demand for Indian government bonds is that, "Economists are already raising red flags over the retail inflation trajectory," wrote Aparna Iyer. "In February, core inflation, which is inflation stripped of food and fuel, rose to almost 6%." Core inflation maybe without fuel inflation but, "Part of the rise in core inflation has also been the surge in fuel prices through transportation component." "I am now prepared to contemplate the possibility that China might get the better of America by 2030," wrote Prof Anantha Nageswaran. "American society, macro policy and capital markets have all decayed and remain decadent. The simultaneous bubbles in multiple asset classes (and some of them are not assets at all) is a tell-tale sign of a society that has lost all its bearings, perhaps beyond redemption." If the US booms, interest rate will go up, the dollar will become stronger, fueling further inflation in India and economy will tank. If China wins, it will attack us and pay Pakistan to do the same. Fortunately, we have the indigenous cow which can be the "foundation of Indian economy". We are invincible.       

The inaccurate poultice of statistics.

"Had India clamped down on border movements, say, in the first week of February 2020, the spread of the virus would have been controlled. But it is always easy to be wise after the event," wrote Chairman of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister Bibek Debroy. It must have slipped his mind that the then President of the US Donald Trump visited India at the end of February and was greeted with an elaborate reception at Motera Stadium in Ahmedabad in Gujarat, which has since been renamed Narendra Modi stadium exactly to the day of Trump's visit. Giving a long list of subsidies, Debroy wrote, "Rural India was relatively unscathed from both covid and the lockdown." Rural India includes those who were working in cities, known as migrant labor, tens of thousands of whom were suddenly left penniless and hungry, and resorted to walking hundreds of miles back to their villages, often with little children. "The average Indian household lost about Rs 25,000 in income", while "the bottom 10% of India's households lost 30 percentage points more of their income than the top 10%", wrote Lahoti, Jha and Basole. The rural poor were the worst hit. "The bottom rural decile lost 54% of their incomes in the covid months, while the richest decile experienced a loss of 16% in rural areas. In urban areas, the corresponding numbers are 39% and 21%, respectively." "One year later, the lockdown that caught them by surprise is over and many migrants who had lost their jobs have made it back to towns and cities but life is akin to the proverbial square peg in a round hole," wrote Economic Times. "The total number of migrant workers who returned to their home states was 1,04,66,152 (over 10.4 million)", with  "Many people lost their loved ones in their perilous journeys undertaken, some succumbing to heat and hunger and some caught in accidents. In May last year, 16 migrants sleeping on the tracks were run over by a train in Maharashtra." "The tragedy took on myriad forms and is still continuing." To save money for the government, "A recent discussion paper by the Niti Aayog has suggested a reduction in the coverage of beneficiaries under the National Food Security Act (NFSA) from 75% of the population in rural areas to 60%, and from 50% to 40% in urban areas," wrote Prof Himanshu. "The food subsidy for this year, at Rs 4.22 trillion, is partly explained by payments of past dues to the Food Corporation of India (FCI). So is the next year's food subsidy budget of Rs 2.4 trillion." "The high food subsidy is actually a result of the mismanagement of food procurement and storage by the government." "A government-appointed committee led by Prof M Vidyasagar of IIT Hyderabad had estimated that in the absence of the lockdown, infections could have risen to more than 140 lakh (14 million) by the end of June, and the peak load of active cases would have been around 50 lakh (5 million)," wrote Amitabh Sinha. There could have been over 2.6 million deaths. This either/or calculation is useless. We will never know what would have happened if only flights, hotels, restaurants and movie theaters were shut down and the rest carried on with social distancing, masks and hand sanitizers. As an economist Debroy is happy with statistics, but suffering is individual, as proved by harrowing stories of desperate attempts to survive. Self-congratulations do not seem appropriate.  

Don't they know how silly they sound?

A few days back Prof Pratap Bhanu Mehta resigned his post at Ashoka University writing, "My public writing in support of a politics that tries to honour constitutional values of freedom and equal respect for all citizens, is perceived to carry risks for the university." "A liberal university will need a liberal political and social context to flourish. I hope the university will play a role in securing that environment." Calling Mehta's resignation "ominously disturbing", ex-Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian also resigned. "It is a sign of the times we live in that we ask every question except the one that needs to be asked," wrote Yogendra Yadav. "And Pratap exposes the Prime Minister, after giving him maximum benefit of doubt, not just for his ideology, but for his sheer incompetence. That must hurt." "Many of the 150 donors of Ashoka, however were offended by Mehta's weekly bashing of PM Modi and the state," wrote Gurcharan Das. "The university worried that if funding dried up, the university might have to cut scholarships, raise student fees, freeze faculty salaries, chop new academic programs." An Indian university in Sonepat in Haryana has not gone unnoticed. "Professors from Yale University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Harvard University, London School of Economics and Political Science, the University of Cambridge among others criticised the university for not defending Mehta." Not just the university. Ministers are brazenly illogical for fear of the Supreme Leader. Completely ignoring the 307% rise in taxes on petrol in the last 6 years of Modi government, Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan said, "The international market has reduced fuel production and manufacturing countries are producing less fuel to gain more profit. This is making consumer countries suffer." Sellers will always seek high prices while buyers will want to pay as little as possible in any transaction. To punish Saudi Arabia the government has ordered state-owned oil companies to reduce oil imports from the Middle East. That is as silly as it gets. Price of crude oil is across the world and there is no reason why another oil producer will charge a lower rate, and, second, cost of transport will be much higher from the Americas. Fossil fuels will continue to contribute 75-80% of our energy needs till 2040, our energy needs will increase by 25-35% because 270 million more people will join the urban population and "the Gulf will remain the main source of Indian imports, given the region's abundant reserves, geographical proximity and high availability of medium-to-heavy crude that is best suited for Indian refineries," wrote Talmiz Ahmed. Similarly, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman assured the Rajya Sabha that there is no risk of a downgrade of India's credit rating because of the increased fiscal deficit. Rating agencies will not just accept dubious statistics from the government. They will also look at states which are being systematically shortchanged by the Center in their share of taxes. To stifle people's voices India witnessed the highest number of internet shutdowns in 2020. We could learn from the Community Court of Justice of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). But we won't. Supreme Leader wants supreme power.             

What's the use of increasing wages if prices go up?

"At least half a dozen states of India are in a rush to pass a law that reserves 75% of all jobs for locals," wrote Ajit Ranade. Last year the Supreme Court struck down 100% reservation in teaching posts for Scheduled Tribes in Andhra Pradesh. In 2019, Andhra Pradesh passed a law to make it compulsory for industries to reserve 75% of jobs for locals.  Recently, Haryana passed a similar law reserving 75% of jobs in private companies for locals. But, "What if we change the discourse from job reservations to minimum wage legislation?" asked Ranade. For decades it was believed that a minimum wage will reduce employment but new studies have shown that a minimum wage "had no effect on employment". "The empirically confirmed fact is that minimum wages are mostly paid to unskilled workers who work in non-tradable sectors. Raising that minimum makes it possible to pass on the cost through a price increase to consumers. Instead of it being funded by the fiscal pot, their welfare is paid for by a large diffused mass of consumers." "Raising the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour , as President Joe Biden has proposed, would cost 1.4 million jobs over the next four years while lifting 900,000 people out of poverty, according to a Congressional Budget Office report," reported CNBC. "Employers would pass some of the increased costs on to consumers in the form of higher prices, and those higher prices, in turn, would lead consumers to purchase fewer goods and services," the report found. "Employers would consequently produce fewer goods and services, and as a result, they would tend to reduce their employment of workers at all levels." Passing on higher wages to consumers in India will raise retail inflation which was 5.03% in February, compared to 4.06% in January. This despite the fact that, "The coronavirus pandemic may have shrunk India's middle-class population by 32 million and driven 75 million below the poverty line in 2020, a Pew Research Center report said," wrote Asit Ranjan Mishra. It could have been much worse if the rupee had fallen in value like other Asian currencies. "The rupee has advanced 1.3% in March, boosted by $2.4 billion of overseas purchases of local stocks, including inflows to initial public offerings," reported Business Standard. Private consumption will pick up in the next few quarters, said Moody's. "As per the report, core inflation is expected to see a more controlled rise in 2021, although food-price or fuel-driven inflation can become a recurring factor, weighing of households' disposable income." Threat of inflation is keeping buyers away from RBI bond offerings. "Indian government bonds are the 'good stuff' and must sell," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "Yet a yield of just about 6 percent on 10-year rupee paper from a barely investment grade has none of the kick of the near-21 percent rate of return offered by a D-rated private borrower on a five-year note." "Central taxes on petrol and diesel rose by over 307% in the last six years, allowing the Union government to mop up a sum of Rs 2.94 lakh crore (Rs 2.94 trillion) through taxes on fuel between April 2020 and January 2021," reported The Times of India. Household savings rate fell from 21% in the April-June quarter of 2020 to 10.4% of GDP in the July-September quarter, reported the Reserve Bank. Increasing costs even slightly, as Ranade proposes, will hit household spending. Increasing minimum wage and cost of goods as a result will benefit no one. Can't apply US statistics to India.    

Having reached the top the only way is down.

One day back 10 people, including a police officer, were shot dead at Boulder Colorado in the US. The gunman Ahmed Al Aliwi  Alissa was armed with an AR-15 style pistol. Before this, 3 people were shot dead in Rockford, Illinois on 26 December, 2020, 3 in Sunrise, Florida on 2 February 2021, 6, including 5 children, in Muskogee, Oklahoma on 21 February and 8 in Atlanta, Georgia on 16 March. President Joe Biden was Vice President to Barack Obama when Adam Lanza shot 20 children, between the ages of 6 and 7 years, to death at Sandy Hook Elementary School on 14 December, 2012. "President Joe Biden called on Congress 'to immediately pass' legislation that will immediately close loopholes in gun background checks and ban assault weapons and high-capacity magazines in his first public remarks." There can be no excuse with Democrats controlling the House and having a majority in the Senate because of a tie-breaking vote by Vice President Kamala Harris. "The US Border Patrol apprehended nearly 100,000 migrants at the US-Mexico border in February, the tenth consecutive month of increased apprehensions and a return to levels last seen in mid-2019," reported Pew Research Center. "On the campaign trail, Joe Biden made sweeping promises to reform US immigration, vowing to 'take urgent action' and undo the policies of Donald Trump," reported BBC. He has certainly been heard. "A growing influx of migrants has led to a record number of children - 3,200 - being held in US immigration facilities as of 8 March." "The United States is facing the biggest surge of migrants at its southwestern border in 20 years the homeland secretary said on Tuesday as the Biden administration races to handle an influx of children trying to cross the US-Mexico border alone." After all the talk about "humane" migrant policies, "The United States is expelling migrants to Mexico far from where they are caught crossing the border, according to Reuters witnesses, in a move that circumvents the refusal of authorities in the Mexican state of Tamaulipas who stopped accepting the return of migrant families with younger children." Away from the US, "North Korea has not responded to behind-the-scenes diplomatic outreach since mid-February by President Joe Biden's administration, including Pyongyang's mission to the United Nations, a senior Biden official told Reuters." On the contrary, "Kim Yo Jong, the sister of North Korea's leader, warned the Biden administration against 'causing a stink at its first step' on Monday, hours after the White House said it has not received a response to its outreach to Pyongyang." "The first high-level US-China talks of the Biden administration got off to a fiery start" with China's top diplomat Yang Jiechi "lashing out about what he said was the United States' struggling democracy, poor treatment of minorities, and criticizing its foreign and trade policies". Coming from an uncivilized barbarian country like China, that must have hurt. Meanwhile, Biden has not answered questions from journalists as yet and may hold his first news conference on his 65th day in office. It is one thing to sneak into the White House but quite another to be taken seriously by opponents. Is Harris practicing already?

What's the use of economic growth without prosperity?

"The birth rate of the European Union (EU) in 2018 stood at 1.54," wrote Vivek Kaul. "The birth rate of Japan in 2018 stood at 1.42." This is much below the replacement fertility rate of 2.1. "As a March 2006 paper released by the European Commission put it: 'Never in history has there been economic growth without population growth'." "Thanks to a lower birth rate, the total population in Japan peaked in 2010 at 128.1 million. It has since been falling, and in 2019 stood at 126.3 million." But, while Japan's population has been falling its per capita GDP has been rising, from $479 in 1960 to $40,247 in 2019. The per capita GDP was rising even as Japan was suffering from deflation from 1991 to 2001, when asset prices were falling and people were saving more while spending less. Starting from Bermuda, with a per capita GDP of $117,089, down to Argentina, with $9,912, every country has a small population. India's per capita GDP was just $2099.6 in 2019, according to the World Bank. "The dystopian world of jobless growth has been staring the world in the face for decades now," wrote R Jagannathan. "First, for the most part, growth is the result of increasing use of technology and not human labor; and second, the excess of capital sloshing around in the world economy ensures that more technology will be used rather than labor in most new enterprises, whether they are in manufacturing or services." "It is easy to see why new technologies are increasingly viewed as a major threat to labor markets. Some estimates even claim that a staggering 80 percent of jobs run the risk of being automated in the coming decades," said a United Nations report. While destroying jobs, new technologies will create new opportunities, described as a process of "creative destruction" by economists. However, "Technology is one of the reasons behind the growing disparities within the workforce in many countries, with middle wage-earners losing ground. Internationally, the lack of access to new technologies in least developed countries and the rapid gains by manufacturing powerhouses threaten to increase inequalities between countries." "In India, thanks to rigid factor markets (land, labor) inherited from the licence-permit-raj era, we are still to fully transition from agriculture to manufacturing; in fact, we practically skipped the manufacturing stage of development and went straight into services, which is what drives GDP growth for us today," wrote Jagannathan. "Unemployed, illiterate, school drop-outs arrested for the first time -- these are common threads that connect every person arrested for snatching in Delhi since 2018, highlighting how one of the most serious concerns on the streets of the national capital is also its biggest gateway to crime," reported Hindustan Times. Neighboring state of Haryana has ordered private companies to reserve 75% of jobs for local youth. "It is also a truism that a big underlying problem in India is a staggering lack of good hobs. With approximately a million new people entering the workforce every month, there are simply not enough well-paying and productive jobs to which these would-be workers could be matched," wrote prof Vivek Dahejia. The labor force participation rate of women in India is down to 20%, even as India is predicted to become the most populous country in the world by 2050. Forget Japan and the EU, India needs a drastic reduction in population. Not just in growth rate but in absolute numbers. Otherwise, disaster.           

No wealth, no freedom, no dignity? Just be happy.

"The UN's Happiness Index ranks countries based on indicators such as generosity, perceptions of corruption, GDP per capita, social support, healthy life expectancy at birth, freedom to make life choices," wrote Member of Parliament (MP) for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Arjun Ram Meghwal. "The measures taken by the Indian government for easing the lives of citizens, uplift of the downtrodden, better infrastructure, increasing employment opportunities are directly improving the happiness of citizens." This concerted effort must have been highly successful because India has jumped to 139th out of 149 in the UN World Happiness Report 2021, from 140 in 2019. Finland is the happiest in the world, while  Pakistan, Bangladesh, and even China are happier than us. Then comes the blather. "We should all learn to seek happiness by limiting our desires rather than attempting to satisfy them." "Rather than buying material goods, we must prioritise buying good experiences." Perhaps, Meghwal should preach the values of renunciation of material wealth to his colleagues in the Lok Sabha, 475 of whom, out of a total of 539, are multi-millionaires, while the GDP per capita has shrunk to less than Rs 100,000 after 7 years of BJP rule, according to the National Statistical Office. That kind of money does not buy much material goods. The fifth National Family Health Survey conducted in 2019-20 showed that "The share of children who were stunted (low height for their age) increased in 13 states, while the share of children who had low weight for their height increased in 12 states." "The economic downturn driven by the coronavirus pandemic pushed 75 million (7.5 crore) below the poverty line in 2020, and shrunk the country's middle class by 32 million (3.2 crore) an analysis by the Pew Research Center found." At the same time, "India's ranking on the Corruption Perception Index - 2020 slipped from 80 to 86 even as its score decreased only by one point from 40 to 41 in 2019." The fall of 6 positions due to slipping by just one point means at least 5 other countries improved their governance compared to us. US NGO Freedom House downgraded India from "free" to "partly free" in a recent report. "The government said the Center treats all citizens as equal as 'enshrined' under the Indian Constitution and all laws are applicable without any discrimination." Beating up everyone equally is not exactly a definition of freedom. "India's broken criminal justice system has become a means of punishing dissidents and other inconvenient people using existing laws. A charge is levied, the person is arrested for sedition or unlawful activities and because the charge is serious, denied bail," wrote Manoj Joshi. India fell two positions to 53rd in the Economist Democracy Union's Democracy Index 2020. "Contrary to the popular narrative that the election process is the ultimate test of a functioning democracy, it must be reiterated that definitive policy and administrative actions to uphold civil liberties in between elections is an indispensable part of the definition," wrote Probal Basu Roy. "Mrs Gandhi imposed the Emergency with a sledgehammer. But dictatorships can also creep in slowly, silently and insidiously, without any formal announcement," wrote Coomy Kapoor. "Overzealous BJP Bhakts, who instigate the police to slap such cases (sedition), seem to be following in the footsteps of Sanjay Gandhi's storm troopers during the Emergency." Mr Meghwal is warning us to get used to being beggars. Don't dare complain.          

Is it tunnel vision or deliberate disinformation?

"Three decades after the start of inflation targeting (IT) policy in New Zealand, and after its adoption in 33 countries, a question worth asking is whether it has succeeded in its primary objective of reducing inflation," wrote economist Surjit S Bhalla. "The last two entrants to adopt the IT arsenal (an appropriate use of the warlike term is because its proponents do want to wage a war against the scourge of inflation) were Argentina and India in 2016." Argentina may have adopted IT, "But in 2018, market expectations about its prospects changed, triggering a deep, prolonged currency crisis that eventually rendered the country's foreign-currency-denominated public debt unsustainable," wrote Argentina's minister of economy Martin Guzman. Inflation rate shot up to over 50% in 2019 and was still over 40% in February 2021. This has resulted in a steep fall in the value of the peso against the US dollar, which in turn fuels inflation by raising the cost of imports. Targeting inflation through high interest rates has no effect on inflation control but was the "primary cause of the GDP growth decline from 8 percent (pre-IT) to 5 percent (post-IT)". Actually, GDP growth rate subsided to just 4% in 2019-20, before the onset of the coronavirus epidemic. Bhalla conveniently forgets the devastating effect of a sudden demonetization of 86.4% of total currency in circulation in November 2016 and the goods and services tax (GST) mess in 2017 which impacted growth according to a report by the State Bank of India (SBI). Not only is the GST extremely complex with many rates of taxes but is also the highest in the world according to the World Bank. "The tax rates in the Indian GST system are among the highest in the world. the highest GST rate in India, while only applying to a subset of goods and services traded, is 28 percent, which is the second highest among a sample of 115 countries which have a GST (VAT) system and for which data is available," the World Bank said in a report." The present governor of the Reserve Bank Shaktikanta Das was appointed in December 2018 when the repo rate was 6.50% since when it has fallen to 4%. In its latest meeting in February the RBI left the repo rate unchanged at 4% even as the consumer price index (CPI) rose to 5.03% in February compared to 4.06% in January. "With bond yields rising the world over, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has warned against bond vigilantes, stating they could undermine the recovery, unsettle financial markets and trigger capital outflows from emerging markets." "Yields on US Treasuries have surged to their highest level in more than a year from record lows hit in 2020, as Federal Reserve commitments to hold rates near zero for years to come encouraged investors to bet economic growth and inflation will heat up," reported Reuters. Goldman Sachs predicts that the US economy will grow by 8% this year although inflation will remain within the Fed's comfort zone of 2.1%. Consistently running inflation at a rate higher than that of the US means that the rupee will have adjust against the dollar and a weaker rupee will increase the cost of imports, which grew to $40.6 billion in February giving a trade deficit of $12.9 billion. Why blame others when so-called economists have tunnel vision?     

The first signs of an ignominious storm?

 "Indian state refiners are planning to cut oil imports from Saudi Arabia by about a quarter in May, in an escalating stand-off with Riyadh following OPEC's decision to ignore calls from New Delhi to help the global economy with higher supply," reported Reuters. Saudi Arabia asked India to use some of the 16.71 million barrels of crude oil it bought at $19.90 per barrel in April-May 2020. Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan "felt rising oil prices were hurting economic recovery and demand". How? It is not as if the government will pass on the lower price to customers to bring down transport costs and the resultant prices of goods and services. When Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power in 2014, petrol was selling at Rs 75 a liter when the price of crude oil was at $110 a barrel but now we are paying Rs 91 per liter at the pump when crude oil is selling at a little over $60 a barrel. The reason is extortionate taxes. "Which essentially means, whatever changes with crude, only about 30% of Indian retail prices will be impacted. As much as 70% of the local prices will remain unaffected," analysed The Economic Times. Having left the European Union the UK wants a free trade deal with India for which UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson was invited as a special guest to the Republic Day ceremony, reported Hindustan Times. Naturally, Britain will want easier access to the Indian market for its Scotch whiskey. To preempt that the government reduced excise duty on imported alcohol from 150% to 50% and added 100% cess, thus keeping the total tax the same. Saudis and British, are they idiots? Modi has blocked the export of 5 million doses of the coronavirus vaccine to the UK, reported Mail Online. "The Serum Institute has denied being responsible, saying the export was blocked by the Indian government in what some branded a case of 'vaccine nationalism' akin to the EU's threat to block Pfizer jabs bound for the UK." It is not because of increased demand at home because India has exported 58.4 doses of the vaccine to 70 countries. Naturally, the Brits are furious and not afraid to show it. Noted scholar and commentator Prof Pratap Bhanu Mehta resigned from Ashoka University saying that he has become a "political liability". He has been openly critical of repression of the people by the government, and its "extraordinary machinery of communication, which literally deploys as many elements in a communicative tool kit as there are feathers in a dancing peacock". Former chief economic adviser Arvind Subramanian also resigned from Ashoka University saying Mehta's ouster was "ominously disturbing". India has till the middle of April to file an appeal against the award of $1.4 billion compensation to Cairn Energy which has already started the process of seizing Indian assets overseas. What ignominy! An American digital forensics consulting firm reported that "fabricated" evidence was planted in gadgets seized from the house of activist Rona Wilson. Democrats in the US Congress have been critical of the Indian government, wrote Seema Sirohi last February. Democrats are now in power and may ask inconvenient questions. A storm seems to be brewing. Whether it is perfect remains to be seen.

Just to make everyone happy.

"India's growth troubles appear to be over, and the economy -- one of the hardest hit by the Covid-19 pandemic -- will see a turnaround and move upward from here, with the massive spending announced by the Center, hoping to lift the economy out of one of the world's worst disruptions caused by the pandemic, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor, Shaktikanta Das said." You don't need a degree in economics to say that, after the country was brought to a standstill on 25 March 2020 when Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a lockdown with just 4 hours notice, setting of a frenzy of panic buying as people crowded into shops to buy essentials. "On March 25, when India had reported only 500 cases, the country went into one of the strictest lockdowns in the world. The first set of curbs remained in place till April 14 and was extended four times, each time with gradual relaxations. The rest of the world adopted different models," reported Hindustan Times. All production came to a halt as millions of suddenly unemployed migrant workers walked hundreds of miles back to their villages. "The 11.5% growth projected by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for India in fiscal 2022 will be largely mechanical, as the economy normalises from an 8% contraction in the ongoing fiscal year, IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath said." Which meant that, the economy must grow as people do whatever it takes to survive. Budget for 2021-22 was presented to Parliament on 1 February. "Finance Minster Nirmala Sitharaman loosened the fiscal purse strings in a decisive budget that sought to boost growth and pursue wide-ranging reform measures, without imposing additional burdens on taxpayers and consumers," wrote Aprana Iyer and Asit Ranjan Misra. "The government will spend Rs 5.54 trillion towards capital expenditure in FY22, a 26% jump from what it spent in FY20 -- Rs 3.35 trillion." The fiscal deficit will be high at 6.8% of GDP this year, "But the government deserves kudos for not worrying about what the rating agencies would say, and staying focused on the task of reviving the economy," appreciated TK Arun. "The task of fiscal consolidation has been pushed back, sensibly." So, will India be the land of milk and honey? Seems that the extra spending by the Center will be by depriving the states of Rs 2.7-3 trillion in compensation for GST shortfalls, thus cutting capital expenditure of the states. Non-performing assets of banks are being understated by banks. said Saswata Guha, as the government suspended the insolvency law for one year to protect companies from bankruptcy. "The government should restart the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) process, suspended since March 25, 2020 to revive the economy. Simply extending the moratorium will only add to the stress in the system, without bringing relief to companies or banks," wrote an editorial in the Economic Times. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) contracted in financial year 2020-21 (FY21) "over a base that contracted in FY20", wrote Udit Misra. "The maximum contraction is happening in the two sectors -- manufacturing and mining -- which are also the most crucial sectors for creating jobs." India and Philippines would be most vulnerable to a taper tantrum, warned S&P. If the US Federal Reserve starts reducing its bond buying program. Lots of traps waiting. But, no harm in a bit of kidology.

Not the foreigners, ask us what we feel.

"The ministry of external affairs is mulling a 'world democracy report' as well as a 'global press freedom index' to be brought out by an independent Indian think-tank, according to people familiar with the matter and government documents reviewed by HT (Hindustan Times)." Trouble is, will anyone, except Bhakts who believe that Prime Minister Narendra Modi can walk on water and levitate across the nation, believe a word of the report, given the way 21-year old Disha Ravi was abducted from her home in Bengaluru by Delhi Police and locked up for weeks without any evidence. Modi promised "freedom of speech and expression" in 2014, but "Six years on, many believe, India's democracy looks diminished, by what they say are persistent attacks on the freedom of the press," reported BBC. Investigative news magazine Caravan has suffered. "Ten sedition cases have been brought against three of its senior-most editorial stuff - the publisher, editor and executive editor - in five states for a story and tweets relating to the death of the protester." The Indian government took strong exception to a discussion in the British House of Commons on the protests by farmers from Punjab and Haryana against 3 farm laws which were forced through the Indian Parliament without any discussion. India says how it treats its citizens is its internal matter just as China claims on its treatment of Uighurs in Xinjiang province. Bhakts may see nothing wrong in persecution of citizens but outsiders are noting a similarity between India and China. It is "Time to send a strong message to Britain," fulminated Kanwal Sibal. "The British high commissioner in Delhi was rightly summoned to lodge a protest but that may not be enough to close the matter. Some conclusions have to be drawn about the British mindset towards India that assumes that its provocations can be cost-free." What Sibal seems to be forgetting is that this government is using laws of the same British against its own citizens. What is the point in setting up a huge committee to commemorate 75 years of Independence from Britain if it is using the British law of sedition to silence opposition, enacted in 1870 by Thomas Babington Macaulay to enforce allegiance to the British monarch? To control the coronavirus spread the government enforced a draconian lockdown with a 4-hour notice on the basis of the Epidemic Diseases Act enacted by the British in 1897 which gives emergency powers to authorities while protecting them against any claims for damages. It must be very embarrassing for the British that an 'elected' government is using colonial era laws to persecute its citizens. "The blunt assertion is that outsiders have no business assessing our democracy. The baseline of the repartee is that voters elect a majority and that is all democracy is all about," wrote Suhas Palshikar. "India's democratic exceptionalism is now withering away," wrote Prof Ashutosh Varshney. "A democracy which speaks with one voice, which elevates citizen duties over citizen rights, which privileges obedience over freedom, which uses fear to instil ideological uniformity, which weakens checks on executive power is a contradiction in terms." "A new report by the US Congress's non-partisan and autonomous research service has taken a critical view of India's handling of the farmer protests, warning that New Delhi's position on the ongoing stir could 'present a challenge' for the Biden administration," When Bhakts need to morph Queen Elizabeth's picture for approval, Britain cannot be blamed in thinking we are still a vassal state. If you treat citizens like dirt the world will relegate you to the dustbin. A police state doesn't understand.   

What if petrol jumps to Rs 120 per liter?

"The wholesale price-based inflation rose for the second consecutive month to a 27-month high of 4.17 percent in February, as food, fuel and power prices spiked. The WPI inflation was 2.03 percent in January and 2.26 percent in February last year." Core inflation was at 5.5 percent in February. "The headline WPI inflation is expected to harden further to around 9-9.5 percent, and the core-WPI is likely to climb to 7-7.5 percent by May 2021, before displaying a more gradual moderation to 4 percent by the end of 2021, said Aditi Nayar." "Retail inflation based on consumer price index (CPI) rose to three-month high of 5.03 percent in February from 4.06 percent in January." "Economists are already raising red flags over the retail inflation trajectory," wrote Aparna Iyer. "Part of the rise in core inflation has also been the surge in fuel prices through transportation component. Here, a $10 per barrel rise in the Indian crude basket pushes up domestic fuel prices by at least Rs 5." "The recent fall in headline inflation, it fell from 7.61% in October 2020 to 4.06% in January 2021, before rising to 5.03% in February, was largely a reflection of food inflation, which fell sharply from 11% in October 2020 to just 1.96% in January 2021," wrote Roshan Kishore. "The non-food basket CPI grew at 5.39% in October 2020, moderated slightly to 5.23% in November 2020 and has been rising steadily in the last three months to reach 5.78% in February 2021." "Price of domestic cooking gas, LPG has doubled to Rs 819 per cylinder in the last seven years while the increase in taxes on petrol and diesel has collections by over 459 percent, Oil Minister Dharmender Pradhan said." Taxes constitute over 60% of the price paid by consumers at pumps, but there is no plan to cut taxes on fuel said the minister. Why should they cut taxes, when the Center has collected Rs 6.85 trillion from taxes on petrol and diesel in the last 3 financial years, from 2018-19 to 2020-21. "The subject matters over which the Center can tax and raise revenue are limited only by the imagination of its bureaucrats. The subject matters over which states can raise revenue are expressly limited," wrote MS Ananth. "State governments are unlikely to relinquish means of raising revenue and allow fuel to be subsumed by GST." Especially as states are being shortchanged of up to Rs 3 trillion by the Center in compensation for a fall in GST collections, while the Center has collected 19.9% of its revenue from cess and surcharges which it does not share with the states. No one is talking about the rupee. Inflation rate in the US was 0.4% in February and 1.7% over the last 12 months. In the euro zone, inflation rose from -0.3% in December 2020 to 0.9% in January 2021. As prices rise faster in India the rupee buys less every month. It has to adjust lower against the dollar, the euro and the yen which will instantly increase prices of imports, including oil. What happens if oil hits Rs 120 per liter? Any answers?

A "good boy" is decidedly not a good thing.

Last month India and China announced that both had withdrawn troops from the Pangong Lake area in Ladakh. Both sides had been facing each other after 20 Indian soldiers died in hand to hand combat with Chinese soldiers in June last year. Recently, China released videos, which apparently were taken during the clash, and admitted that 4 of its soldiers also died in the incident. According to the Russian news agency Tass, 45 Chinese soldiers were killed while according to US intelligence the number of Chinese casualties was 35. However, "China still hasn't withdrawn from 'several forward positions' it seized during clashes with Indian forces along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), a top military commander told lawmakers at a congressional hearing," reported the Hindustan Times on 10 March. "Admiral Philip S Davidson, who commands the US military's Indo-Pacific Command, also told lawmakers that the US had helped India over its border conflict by providing information, cold-weather clothing and other equipment." Our soldiers have been sacrificed. This year's Combined Commanders' Conference of the Indian Armed Forces was "held at Kevadia under the shadow of the Statue of Unity in Gujarat, from 4 to 6 March", wrote Lt Gen H S Panag (retd). The Statue of Unity is that of Sardar Vallabhai Patel, constructed at a cost of Rs 29.89 billion (US$422 million), with brass plates cast by Jiangxi Tongqinq Metal Handicrafts Co in China. For the first time personnel below the rank of commissioned officers were invited, which made no sense, because the strict chain of command in the armed forces means that only senior officers take strategic decisions, though suggestions from all ranks are always welcome. Prime Minister Narendra Modi stressed "indigenisation" of "doctrines, procedures and customs practiced in the armed forces" which was incomprehensible for the army brass. Does it mean control of decision making process in the armed forces by Modi's party the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), just as the the People's Liberation Army (PLA) of China owes allegiance to the Communist Party of China? "The United Nations has received $10,000 (Rs 7 lakh) 'donation' from the pro-Khalistan group Sikhs for Justice, an outfit outlawed by India," reported The Times of India. The group has also promised $1.3 million "to investigate India's use of violence and sedition charges against protesting farmers". Meanwhile climate activist Disha Ravi, who spent days in jail on false charges of sedition, has written on Twitter, "Locked in my cell I wondered when it became a crime to think the most basic elements of sustenance on this planet were as much mine as theirs," reported CNN. Meanwhile, multiple courts in different countries have confirmed a $1.4 billion award to Cairn Energy against India. Supporters have created a meme of Queen Elizabeth saying, "You are a good boy" to Modi. Any other leader in the world would consider "good boy" as patronising and extremely insulting. Reduced to this, huh?        

They are not worried, but we cannot control it.

"When you continue to get an upward forecast for the economy and earnings, it is very hard to get bearish because the news keeps getting better and there is also the news on the pandemic," said Hugh Albert Johnson about US markets. "We are about 7% overvalued but believe me it is very hard to get bearish when the news is this good." "The consensus forecasts put 2021 GDP growth at just over 5% worldwide, and near 6% in the United States. I think growth could top 6% worldwide and 8% in the United States, an astonishing pace for a developed country," wrote Ruchir Sharma. Bond investors seem to agree. "A climb in long-dated Treasury yields stoked by US growth expectations has contributed to investors yanking more than $15 billion from bond funds this week, the largest outflow in a year, according to figures released Friday," wrote Carla Mozee. "The 10-year yield was pushed up to 1.639%, its highest in more than a year and the Nasdaq composite dropped 1.5%." "Germany's 10-year borrowing costs jumped 26 basis points in February, the biggest monthly rise in over three years, with similar moves seen across the euro area. Policymakers from president Christine Lagarde to chief economist Philip Lane have expressed unease. Markets want to know the game plan," reported Reuters. "The European Central bank said on Thursday it would accelerate money-printing to keep a lid on euro zone borrowing costs, signalling to sceptical markets that it is determined to lay the foundation for a solid economic recovery," reported Reuters." "Making matters worse, markets are starting to worry about the massive experiment in budget-deficit monetization being carried out by the US Federal Reserve and Department of the Treasury through quantitative easing (a form of Modern Monetary Theory or 'helicopter money'," wrote Prof Nouriel Roubini. "To be sure, inflation may eventually emerge if the effects of monetized fiscal deficits combine with negative supply shock to produce stagflation." While markets worry about inflation, which may force central banks to reduce liquidity and may even make them start raising interest rates, "Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said US inflation risks remain subdued as the Biden administration pumps $1.9 trillion in pandemic relief into the economy and the return to full employment comes into view," the Hindustan Times quoted Bloomberg. Meanwhile, "Oil prices jumped more than $1 a barrel, hitting their highest levels in 14 months, after OPEC and its allies agreed not to increase supply in April as they await a more substantial recovery in demand amid the coronavirus pandemic." While inflation is not of much concern in US and Europe, the rate of retail inflation in India in February jumped to 5.03% from 4.06% in January. Why? "Price of domestic cooking gas, LPG has doubled to Rs 819 per cylinder in the last seven years while the increase in taxes on petrol and diesel has swelled collections by over 459 percent, Oil Minister Dharmender Pradhan said." In response to India begging OPEC to increase supplies, Saudi Arabia responded that we should use the 16.71 million barrels of crude bought in April-May 2020 at an average cost of just $19 per barrel. Why are we begging? Because reducing taxes will balloon fiscal deficit and not doing so will result in very high inflation. Either way, the rupee will tank. That's when the writing will appear on the wall.  

A demarche shows lack of understanding.

"India issued a demarche on Tuesday on Britain and summoned the British high commissioner to convey strong opposition to the 'unwarranted and tendentious discussion' on India's agricultural reforms in the UK Parliament, which the Indian high commission here described as packed with false assertions and one- sided." A 'demarche' is diplomatic correspondence representing the official views of the government. Which is angry because, "At the debate 17 out of 18 MPs, from Labour, the Conservatives and other parties, condemned India for its treatment of farmer protesters and the alleged crackdown on the press, internet shutdowns and arrest of activists." How dare the British expose repression of Indian citizens when, "Nearly 70% of cases of internet shutdowns globally happened in India in 2020, according to a new report by Access Now, a global non-profit that works on digital rights and online freedom. Out of the 155 instances of internet disruptions, 109 were recorded in India, followed by Yemen with six instances." Another NGO Freedom House in the US downgraded India to partly free which the government dismissed as "misleading, incorrect and misplaced". Foreigners are biased say the Bhakts, a dedicated group of followers of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Are they? "A law, the Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances Act, is being weaponised and a premier federal agency  tasked with fighting drug trafficking by mafias at all-India level appears to have become a leaky instrument out to smear individual reputations by innuendo, helpfully amplified by gutless TV channels willing to play accomplice," wrote an editorial in The Indian Express. The agency is headed by a Gujarat-cadre officer Rakesh Asthana. We understand. "The state uses investigations, leaked evidence, chargesheets as pretexts for establishing narrative dominance and to intimidate. It is not interested in guilt or innocence. It is interested in demonstrating it can destroy your life with impunity," wrote PB Mehta. So what is the truth about farmers from Punjab who are protesting at Delhi's borders? "According to Professor Sukhpal Singh, principal economist, Punjab Agriculture University (PAU), Ludhiana, 89 percent of farmers in Punjab are under debt," wrote Anju Agnihotri Chaba. 9,300 farmers and 7,300 farm laborers committed suicide in 17 years in Punjab, 88% of which were due to heavy debt. "Iron nails, rods, barbed wire, boulders and makeshift walls are being used to barricade Delhi's borders against thousands of protesting farmers," reported BBC. "Indian tycoon Gautam Adani has added more billions to his wealth than anyone else in the world this year on the back of investor excitement around his ports-to-power plants conglomerate," reported The Hindu Business Line. According to the UN, India, at 18 million, has the largest number of citizens who have escaped abroad. So desperate are people in Punjab that there is actually a gurdwara dedicated to visas to the US. A demarche is not going to stop people in the UK or US. They have freedom of speech. Our lot can't understand.