Saturday, August 01, 2020

Why waste a crisis to win elections?

"The Indian government is working with the central bank on a possible one-time restructuring of loans due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on businesses, finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Friday." "The RBI's financial stability report released last week showed that at the headline level, 50% of total outstanding loans were under moratorium as of April." It means the debtors were allowed to postpone repaying their EMIs by six months to 31 August. A moratorium does not lessen liability of debtors. They have to repay the original loan with added interest for the deferred period. "Earlier this week, HDFC Bank chairman Deepak Parekh in an exchange with the RBI governor said the moratorium was being partly misused and should not be continued as it would hurt banks, and particularly smaller non-bank finance companies (NBFCs) or shadow banks. Parekh instead asked Governor Shaktikanta Das to consider a one-time restructuring scheme instead." What does 'restructuring' mean? Does it mean forgiving loans of all those who have not paid, and, if so, who pays for the loans? The government or the RBI? "A few indicators of economic activity had looked up in May, as India began to reopen for business after a prolonged covid lockdown, but since then. this incipient recovery appears to have lost momentum," wrote an editorial in the Mint. The Mint Macro Tracker showed, "As of June, 12 of the 16 macroeconomic indicators considered in the tracker were in the red (below their five-year growth trend), one was the same as last month, while three were in green (above their five-year growth trend) and one maintained trend." How to get out of the hole? The government should forget about fiscal deficit and vastly increase spending to get the economy going, said Swaminathan Aiyar. "In other words, the government should have extra borrowing, financed entirely by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) printing money. This will be a once and for all a huge explosion of fiscal deficit, so be it," he said. Instead, "Liquidity is the latest elixir in town," wrote Vivek Kaul, after Sitharaman released the government's stimulus package over 5 days. "The idea behind liquidity is that people and businesses borrow more and then spend." However, "Former central banker Viral Acharya warned against the RBI monetizing the budget deficit, citing risks to inflation and external sector stability," wrote Anirban Nag. Rebutting Acharya the Mint wrote, "We must not hesitate to spend on a revival." The economy will grow on the back of agriculture and allied sectors, said Sitharaman, but, "Green shoots of Indian economy are unlikely to grow until they are watered with fiscal stimulus measures that create broad demand for agricultural commodities," wrote Prof Himanshu. The right time for a fiscal stimulus maybe only after a vaccine for coronavirus becomes available, said Chief Economic Adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian. But, that won't be before next year. There are elections in several states next year, including West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu, which Prime Minister Narendra Modi wants to win, but only one this year in Bihar, which the BJP is expected to win anyway. Ah, got it.

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