Wednesday, August 19, 2020

Is it wrong to be happy with nothing?

"The economy sustained an increasing pace of recovery through August so far after a prolonged period of plateauing trends in July, according to a Nomura note on Monday." A Mood of the Nation Survey (MOTN) suggests, "As many as 72% of its respondents felt that the Narendra Modi government has handled the economy well. The approval rating of the Prime Minister, at 78%, is reported to be at its highest ever," wrote Prof Tulsi Jayakumar. On the contrary, a survey by the Reserve Bank (RBI) showed consumer and business confidence down, lower capacity utilization, higher raw material inventory, and 32 experts predicted contraction of the real gross domestic product (GDP), consumer spending, investment and total gross value added by the economy's three major sectors. The two surveys are divergent because people value the present more than the future, wrote Jayakumar. "Domestic and international air traffic to and from India may decline by at least 50% in the current financial year because of the Covid-19 pandemic, causing job losses and force airlines to ground aircraft", said an official note. How many airlines will go bankrupt we are not told. "A sea of people, who have lived in overseas locations for a while, especially in West Asia, were choosing to return home," the Mint has found. The Kerala government estimates that 254,000, out of 500,000 who had registered for repatriation, have returned, and are being forced to work for a fraction of what they were earning abroad. The situation is also dismal for those within India who were earning more than $10 (about Rs 750) per day and are now having to look for menial jobs in and around their villages. "VRL Logistics Ltd, which owns the largest fleet of commercial vehicles in India, won't buy new trucks and will get rid of old ones to rein in repair costs amid nascent recovery in demand." The company is reducing the size of its fleet by 700 trucks because of slow orders. "Stressed power assets resolved in the last 18 months are unable to generate adequate cash as the pandemic has reduced demand and made debt servicing difficult, leaving lenders worried about resolution of more such projects with an outstanding debt of Rs 90,000 crore (Rs 900 billion)." Banks will see a rise in bad loans. So why are Indians so happy with the government despite economic slowdown and loss of income? Because we are happy with a lot less than others, wrote Chetan Bhagat. India's per capita income is $2,000 per year which is $5.5 (Rs 412.50) per day. That amount of money can buy two meals and enough entertainment on smartphones to keep us happy. No jobs, no money, but Indians are cheering Kamala Harris. Modi can relax.   

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