Monday, August 10, 2020

This could be a very costly experiment?

"India's top economic adviser said a V-shaped recovery for the economy is possible this year, provided a vaccine is found to contain the covid-19 pandemic," wrote Vrishti Beniwal. "In the absence of a vaccine, the economic recovery will have to wait until next year, although that too is likely to be V-shaped given the experience after the Spanish flu of 1918, he said." But will every Indian benefit from the recovery whenever it happens? As in  1980-81, "Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Gujarat accounted for 47% of the country's output in 2018-19," wrote Nikita Kwatra and Pramit Bhattacharya. But even among these five, "Maharashtra is as affluent as Vietnam (gross national income, or GNI, per capita $2,360 as of 2018), while Uttar Pradesh is comparable to Nepal (GNI per capita $970 as of 2018)." In 2000 "the per capita income of the five richest states was 145% higher than that of the bottom five states. The difference rose to 289% in 2010-11 and further to 322% in 2018-19." "India had an average income of $2,100 in 2019. China was at a similar level in 2006, which means that India lags China by 13 years in terms of this simple metric," wrote Niranjan Rajadhyaksha. "Indonesia had an average income of around $2,100 in 2007, Thailand in 2002, Malaysia in 1988, and South Korea in 1983." Udit Mishra explained the state of the Indian economy with 6 charts taken from the Reserve Bank (RBI). Consumer and business confidence are both down at present, but, whereas consumers are more confident about the economy one year from now, business is pessimistic about prospects. New orders were witnessing negative growth even before the coronavius and banks are not transmitting cuts in interest rates to borrowers. The RBI has cut repo rate, which forms the reference rate for interest charged by banks to borrowers, by 200 basis points from May 2019 to now. This was done solely to help the government, wrote Vivek Kaul. Low interest rates increase the value of government bonds held by public sector banks (PSBs), thus offsetting bad loans on their books, and the government can borrow at lower rates while savers lose money because they get 5-6% interest on their savings when retail inflation in June was 6.09%. Bond traders are nervous because " the RBI refrained from taking steps to ease the market's debt burden at a policy review last week, even as the government plans to raise 12 trillion rupees ($160 billion) of bonds this year", wrote Kartik Goyal. Yields on short duration bonds were slightly higher as the RBI did not cut rates as expected, wrote Subhadip Sircar. Seems that the RBI has not been told of the government's intentions but is willing to do anything to help the government at the cost of the people. The experiment will show whether economic growth depends on the people or the government. At what cost?

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