Tuesday, August 18, 2020

What use is economics if it doesn't help us?

"The first ever monetary policy committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has held its last meeting," wrote V Anantha Nageswaran, who is not impressed with "the stranglehold of inflation targeting (IT) on our policy-framework and our mindsets". "India's retail inflation rose to 6.93% in July on higher food prices", while the MPC cut the repo rate, which forms the basis of interest paid by banks on our tern deposits, to 4%. This means savers get less interest on their money than the rate of price increases, which means their money is losing value. Not much evidence of inflation targeting there. While conceding that "High inflation acts as a tax on the poor," he feels that "we need a basket of goods and services from which it is calculated to be aligned with what they consume". Surely India has many statisticians who can update the basket regularly to provide clearer information on inflation. "Madhu Sehrawat and AK Giri (2015) found the threshold level of inflation (above which there is an adverse impact on economic growth) to be 6.75% for India". The target of consumer inflation was set by the government at 4%, plus/minus 2%, giving the MPC a range between 2-6%. If the MPC fails to keep it within such a wide range, what is the guarantee that the MPC will be able to maintain the rate at 6.75%? Contradicting Nageswaran, Rajrishi Singhal wrote, "RBI has slashed rates severely, poured inordinate liquidity into the system and indulged in extraordinary regulatory forbearance." "RBI governors have even used the term 'heavy lifting' to describe their unfair burden." "The MPC framework governed by the RBI Act, which also lays down the composition of the search committee, cabinet secretary, RBI governor, economic affairs secretary and three external experts handpicked by the government," which means it is packed with government agents so that, "the last MPC's voting patterns clearly revealed the government nominee's identity and policy stance". So why does Nageswaran recommend that we need to revisit the target and range of inflation? Because high inflation helps the government. The government collects goods and services tax (GST) on everything we buy, so the higher the prices the more money it gets. When prices rise, people demand higher wages on which they have to pay income tax, with huge surcharge of up to 37% on those earning Rs 50 million and more. Finally, the government is the largest borrower, with a borrowing target of Rs 12 trillion this year. Hence, a low rate of interest lowers the cost of borrowing for the government, while high inflation reduces the value of the rupee and, hence, the value of total debt of the government. When talking about economic growth, these economists mean growth in nominal GDP, which ignores inflation and helps the government, when they should be focusing on the real GDP which helps the people. Even if they are members of the Economic Advisory Council to Prime Minister. Else, economics becomes collusion.   

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