Saturday, August 15, 2020

The price of restrictions.

Amazon India's Prime Day sale "turned out to be the single biggest two-day promotional event for 91,000 small- and medium sized sellers on the e-commerce platform this year, its top executive said." "More than 4,000 small sellers crossed sales of Rs 10 lakh (Rs 1 million), while 209 sellers became crorepatis (those earning more than Rs 10 million), Amit Agarwal, country head of Amazon, told ET in an interview." "Personal computing, large appliances, kitchenware and smartphones were the top-selling categories in terms of value, while apparel and pantry sold the most in terms of units, during the two-day sale." Whether this is an example of 'revenge buying', which was seen in Guangzhou province of China, after its coronavirus lockdown was lifted, we do not know. "Months of lockdown have altered the habits of Indian consumers," reported Bloomberg. Apart from health products and disinfectants, "Searches for white goods including juicers, mixers, microwaves and toasters quadrupled in July. Companies such as IFB Industries Ltd have suspended new orders for dishwashers because they can't keep up with demand." Whether this will continue once domestic helpers are back at work remains to be seen. "According to official estimates, more than four million people are employed as domestic helpers, often for very little money, in middle-class and affluent Indian homes. Unofficial estimates put that number at a whopping 50 million." Companies are reporting a slump in profits but these are beating expectations. "While aggregate net income of 47 NSE Nifty 50 Index members slumped 40% in the quarter ended June from a year ago, nearly two-thirds of these companies met or exceeded estimates, data compiled by Bloomberg show," wrote Ishika Mookerjee. "Exports contracted 10.21% (year on year) to $23.64 billion in July while imports fell 28.4% to $28.47 billion. Trade deficit was $4.83 billion compared to a $790 million surplus in June." This despite, the price of crude oil at around $40 per barrel in July this year, compared to over $60 per barrel in July last year. Taking advantage of low import cost of oil, the government hugely increased taxes on fuel to boost revenue, so that around 70% of the price we pay at pumps consists of taxes. However, demand for fuel declined in July. "Diesel consumption, which accounts for about two-fifths of India's overall fuel usage and is widely used for transportation as well as for the country's irrigation needs, fell to 5.52 million tonnes last month from 6.31 million tonnes in June." Frustrated by the rising price of diesel farmers are resorting to altering their irrigation pumps to run on cooking gas which is much cheaper. Much less taxes for the government but much more environment friendly. "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) board on Friday approved a dividend payout of Rs 57,128 crore (Rs 571.28 billion) to the government for the current financial year." This is what it earns through seigniorage and open market operations. Huge as it may seem, this payout is unlikely to plug the hole in government finances, wrote Anirban Nag. The only sector which saw a boom is cannabis production, which is banned in India, but legal in other countries, earning huge taxes. Stupidity has a price.   

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