Sunday, August 30, 2020

It may not be as cut and dried as it seems.

Just 64 days left till election day in the US, both National Conventions are over and now it is up to candidates to slug it out till 3 November. Except for Fox News, almost all news media are rabidly against President Donald Trump and are already giving a landslide victory to Democrat candidate former Vice President Joe Biden with 203 electoral college (EV) votes assured and another 95 almost there, giving a total of 298 EV votes. 270 are needed to sleep inside the White House for the next 4 years. Predictions are a repeat of 2016. "With hours to go before Americans vote, Democrat Hillary Clinton has about a 90 percent chance of defeating Republican Donald Trump in the race for the White House, according to the final Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project," predicted Reuters. CNN predicted 332 EV votes for Clinton to just 206 for Trump. In the event, Trump won with 306 EV votes and the Republican Party took control of both the House and the Senate. Citing the coronavirus pandemic as a reason, Biden has been campaigning from the basement of his house in Wilmington, Delaware, to accentuate his difference with Trump in his respect for social distancing. Having selected Biden as their candidate, Democrats are advising him not to debate Trump. "Don't tell anybody I told you this. Especially don't tell Joe Biden. I don't think there should be any debates," said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Why? Because, "I think he will probably act in a way that is beneath the dignity of the presidency." Or, perhaps, the Democrats are afraid of bloopers and zingers which can lose the election. Trump has questioned Biden's mental acuity saying, "He doesn't know he is alive." He has challenged Biden to take a drug test before debates. The Democrats are panicking , wrote Tom Del Beccaro for Fox News. Because, "In a poll taken by CBS/YouGov, after the Democrat Convention, President Trump raced to a 10% lead among independents." Party supporters are so divided that "there is little crossover voting between the parties," and that "places a premium on major party enthusiasm (another Biden weakness) and how independents will vote". According to Newt Gingrich, Biden looks unfit to lead the nation, vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris "had wavered between embracing the most radical positions and then opportunistically changing to more moderate positions when she got blowback", and the Biden-Harris ticket has become more radical which will alienate most voters. Perhaps, the biggest problem faced by Biden is how to address the Black Lives Matter protests as they have become more aggressive. Trump has clearly staked his position as on the side of law and order. Biden's running mate Harris identifies herself as a black woman so Biden has to be seen to be sympathetic to protesters even when they resort to looting and burning. We will know on 4 November. Till then it is going to be very entertaining.

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