Friday, August 28, 2020

India has many types of inflation. Why talk of only one?

In a change to its monetary policy, the US Federal Reserve "promises to aim for 2% inflation on average, so that periods of too-low inflation would likely be followed by an effort to lift inflation 'moderately above 2% for some time'," reported Reuters. "The change suggests the US central bank's key overnight interest rate, already near zero, will stay there for potentially years to come as policymakers woo higher inflation." Fed Chair Jerome Powell's "stated purpose is to reduce joblessness, which is indeed imperative in Covid-hit America", wrote Livemint. But it asks a party-pooper question, "What about asset price inflation? Isn't that where much of the extra cash is going? Does it not count?" The trajectory of inflation is not clear. "Spending may bounce back faster than it did after 2008, and drive prices higher, as a more aggressive policy response has cushioned the blow to household finances," wrote Holland, Curran, Chen and Kim. On the other hand, "the pandemic has left the supply side of the economy intact. Hence, once activity swings back to normalcy, excess capacity can trigger deflation." In India, inflation expectations of households "continue to be significantly above RBI's upper band of 6%", wrote Roshan Kishore. Does it indicate high demand? "The economy had been losing growth momentum even before the pandemic disrupted economic activity" and "has been facing deficient rather than excess demand". Economists have decided that the optimum level of consumer price inflation (CPI) for India is 6.75%, wrote VA Nageswaran. Inflation expectations of households tracks food inflation, which has been low from 2016-19, but the monetary policy committee (MPC) sacrificed growth by keeping interest rates too high. Inflation targeting should be junked, thinks Nageswaran. It has been. "As deposit rates continue to be subdued and real returns turn negative in the wake of rising inflation, the common Indian bank depositor has been left ruing a bitter harvest," wrote Amritesh Malhan. Because the MPC of "The central bank has cut rates by 250 bps (basis points) since February 2019 with the most aggressive reductions coming during the Covid-19 lockdown." With high costs and negative interest rates households are also seeing a drop in the growth of their disposable income. To augment their income people have turned to the stock markets which "have rallied more than 50 percent from the lows touched during the March crash". A lot of them are first time investors with no experience. Worse still, "India's retail investors are leaving their mark on a risky corner of the nation's $1.9 trillion share market: penny stocks." "India's stock market is not in sync with the real economy which will result in a correction, Reserve Bank India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das warned on Friday." If we are to ignore retail inflation for the masses, why was Dearness Allowance (DA) for government employees increased from 17 to 21% in March? "The decision will be effective from January 1, 2020." So, there is retail inflation, asset price inflation and government wage inflation. And a low interest rate. A crash seems inevitable.

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