Too small to make a real difference.

"Indian farmers have planted 79.9 million hectares with summer crops so far, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare, up 18.3% from last year as robust monsoon rains spurred sowing in the world's leading producer of farm goods." "The Indian economy is set for a strong revival on the back of agriculture and allied sectors that are boosting the rural sector, finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman said." Standing up to China's barbaric aggression will need, not just military might, but a strong economy as well, wrote Prof Ashok Gulati. "It is well-known that China's per capita income in 1978 was even lower than that of India, but today it is almost five times higher." "China ushered in economic reforms in 1978, starting with major changes in agriculture." "This led to an agri-GDP growth of 7.1 percent between 1978 and 1984. The real income of farmers grew at about double this rate." An increase in agricultural output need not lead to an increase in income of farmers which depends on prices farmers receive for their produce, wrote Prof Himanshu. "While cereal prices continue to show positive inflation, most other food groups, such as fruits and vegetables, eggs, poultry and fish, continue to see prices decline." It's more complicated. Only 23% of income of an average rural household comes from agricultural activities -- 19% from cultivation and 4% from livestock rearing, wrote Vivek Kaul. Most rural incomes come from non-agricultural activities. "In fact, of the 63 million micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) which contribute to around 30% of India's gross domestic product (GDP), around 50% are in rural areas." As these MSMEs have been severely impacted by the lockdown, rural income has plummeted. "Tractor sales in June have gone up and this has been widely cited as a sign of rural recovery." "In 2019-20, a little over 700,000 tractors were sold in India." Assuming a price of Rs 500,000 per tractor the total comes to Rs 350 billion out of the total agriculture economy of Rs 32.6 trillion. Agriculture contributed just 13.4% to the Indian economy in 2019-20, so it is much too small to make much difference. In a recent speech, Reserve Bank (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das talked about "fortunes shifting in favor of the farm sector", wrote Roshan Kishore. Cultivation of wheat and rice depends on government buying at a minimum support price, but 47% of such procurement is from Punjab and Haryana. Problem for the government is that high prices are bad for consumers. Demand for food is low in India compared to international standards. A bumper crop may result in precipitous fall in prices, especially of fruits and vegetables. With restaurants and hotels still closed, demand for these products is low. Reforms are very difficult and may annoy the rural vote bank. Much easier to handout cash through MGNREGA scheme, which provides rural employment, and by waiving loans taken by farmers. Everyone is happy. Taxpayer pays.