Monday, August 17, 2020

Seems like we are back to Indira Gandhi, doesn't it?

Ardent cheerleader Anil Padmanabhan analysed Prime Minister Narendra Modi's "near 90-minute address from the ramparts of the Red Fort" on India's Independence Day. It was the usual stuff about "farmers, the poor, small scale industry, women and the middle-class". Investment in infrastructure is to be the way to revive the economy. Modi did not reveal how he will finance new investment, with falling tax collections and fixed revenue expenditure threatening to push fiscal deficit out of control, wrote Vivek Kaul. Nearly 50 years back, Indira Gandhi won a landslide victory in elections in 1971 with the slogan of "Garibi Hatao", which means 'remove poverty'. Modi announced Rs 6,000 handout to every farmer just before elections in May 2019. Migrant workers, who returned to their villages due to the sudden shutdown on 24 March due to the coronavirus, are facing destitution because of lack jobs in rural areas, wrote Shashi Shekhar. Those who took loans from microfinance institutions are having to sell their possessions or borrow from local moneylenders at exorbitant interest rates to repay their loans, wrote Sayantan  Bera. Modi won a resounding victory last year partly due to airstrikes on terrorist camps in Balakot. Gandhi permanently liberated East Pakistan, which became today's Bangladesh, in December 1971, and forced nearly 93,000 Pakistani troops to surrender. Gandhi nationalized all banks in 1969, which gave her control of all money deposited in banks, while Modi took all our cash, forcing us to queue for hours to withdraw small amounts of money from banks, when he demonetized Rs 1,000 and Rs 500 notes on 8 November 2016. Gandhi used money from nationalized banks to give loans to people. "Janardhan Poojary, her finance minister in 1982, announced a loan mela whereby people could get loans, without offering any collateral, at subsidised rates of interest." Bad loans soared in banks. Last year Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced 'loan melas' in more than 400 districts across India to kick-start the economy because the rate of growth of the economy has been falling from 8.3% in 216-17, to 7% in 2017-18, to 6.1% in 2018-19 and then to 4.2% in 2019-20, the last financial year. Growth rate of India's gross domestic product (GDP) averaged around 4% during Gandhi's rule although there was greater volatility. Although India fell behind the rest of Asia, agriculture grew, poverty fell and bank deposits grew during the Gandhi years. Non-performing assets (NPAs) in banks grew. NPAs may rise to over 14% this year because the Reserve Bank (RBI) has declared a moratorium on loan repayments. Gandhi won four general elections, Modi has won two so far. Gandhi declared Emergency in June 1975, which lasted for 21 months. No one knows what will happen when the country starts to get back to normal by the end of next year. If NPAS shoot up, lending stops, businesses are taken to bankruptcy courts, unemployment soars and the GDP tanks will Modi declare an Emergency before elections in 2024? The similarities with Indira Gandhi have been stark so far.      

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