Thursday, November 24, 2016

The fun starts 20 January, till then we relax.

In all this cacophony about demonetisation of high denomination notes in India and the election of Donald Trump in the US have we taken our eyes off the immediate threats facing our nation? The rogue states of Pakistan and China are still there, still planning to harm us. Last month terrorists beheaded the body of one of our soldiers after sneaking into our territory, under covering fire from the Pakistani army. Then a soldier's body was mutilated a few days back. The Indian army responded ferociously with heavy firing across the border. Pakistan claims 3 of its soldiers and 9 civilians have been killed in Indian firing. First Pakistani Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif complained to US Secretary of State, John Kerry about Indian firing across the border, only to be reminded of state sponsored terrorism by Pakistan. A week back Pakistani Ambassador to the UN, Malleha Lodhi complained to the Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon about 7 Pakistani soldiers being killed by Indian artillery fire. In September Ms Lodhi complained to the UN about our plans to build a wall along the Line of Control, to stop terrorist filth coming across. So, Pakistan is claiming it has a right to send terrorists across the border at will. We know that the Pakistani government is not mad so there must be some logic in what they are saying. In 2008 the Pakistan army was estimated to control a business empire in excess of $20 billion. This, when the nominal GDP was a mere $170 billion. Which means that the army controlled around 12% of the economy. In July, the Defence Minister, Khwaja Asif informed Pakistan's Senate that the army runs 50 commercial entities, including cement manufacturing, wind energy, banks and even a stud farm. If there is no fighting with India there will be no need for such a huge army, which will result in loss of power for the generals. In October, Indian Home Minister, Rajnath Singh confirmed that India is indeed going to build a 3,323 km wall to seal the border between the two countries completely by December 2018. Whether it will be a physical wall made of bricks and cement or a laser wall to give advance warning we do not know. They do not seem to have stopped infiltration so far. Perhaps, we can build a really effective barrier with Israeli help. The election of Donald Trump injects a completely unknown element. He has said that he will declare Pakistan a terrorist state. If he does sanctions will be imposed on army generals, banks and businesses. Will they go mad and decide on national suicide bombing by using nuclear weapons against India? What about Pakistan's best friend China which is building an economic corridor from Kashgar in China to Gwadar port in Balochistan? Trump has promised to levy 45% tax on Chinese products and if he adds sanctions on Chinese companies that will infuriate the Chinese. All will be known after 20 January. Till then we can enjoy queuing at banks to get some money. What fun.

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