Is all this drama just 'political jumla' after all?

Depending on who you ask the sudden withdrawal of 1000 and 500 rupee notes is a game changer, which will boost the economy, or it is just a cynical political move to hamstring the opposition in the coming elections in UP and Punjab. India is no stranger to game changers by politicians. The MGNREGA scheme was supposed to increase disposable income of the rural poor, give them better bargaining power and increase growth, by increasing demand. As in any social scheme, most of the money was stolen and resulted in food inflation by creating a floor under rural wages, hurting the very poor it was supposed to help. The theory of Okun's Bucket has been known for a long time in economics. The proposal to allow 51% foreign holding in multi-brand retail was supposed to result in huge investment in back end infrastructure, increase farmers' income and reduce prices. It was stillborn. The Unique Identification card, or Aadhar, was introduced to target government handouts to the deserving poor. But despite Supreme Court rulings not to force it on citizens we are being coerced into providing our fingerprints and iris scans. It will be compulsory for this year's Joint Entrance Examination for students. The Stasi would have been proud of Aadhar. Politicians claim that all information collected by the UIDAI is secure. Is it? Aadhar is an identity card and at some point the police, banks or civil servants will want to verify the identity of a person. The Prime Minister is fanatic about a digital India so at some point it will be accessible online and that will allow hackers to access details about people. Ruchir Sharma writes that demonetization is about punishing the rich because they did not cooperate with the amnesty scheme earlier this year when they were invited to convert black money into white by paying 45% tax. "It might be satisfying to punish shady fortunes, but revenge is not a development strategy." Sharma is right that it is revenge on the rich, but it is more a revenge on political opponents who have been taunting Modi on his promise of giving every Indian Rs 1.5 million by bringing all black money stashed broad. Every word is now a 'jumla' You dare to taunt me, let me see you laughing when you stand for hours in queues to access your own white money. Will black money disappear? For a time. Trouble is that Modi seems to be intimidated by civil servants who are the major reason for black money. After being banned civil servants are officially allowed to accept gifts. Their foreign trips maybe sponsored by foreigners. So, a fellow in the Ministry of Defence could be sponsored by the ISI. Most of the rage is expressed by politicians who have lost their stash. The rest of us know that everything in India is jumla anyway. Just be patient.