Will the poor applaud a huge recession?

Politicians and economists think in terms of numbers, which give them great comfort, but economics is also about people. And people are unpredictable. Economists think that with demonetisation, after a short period of pain, the economy will grow strongly as tax collections improve, interest rate drops, government spending increases, banks are able to lend more, the rich suffer, while the poor dance all the way to prosperity. Apparently, 80% of Indians support demonetisation. Of course, they do. It is the old Gandhi thing that politicians have been using so successfully for decades, to bluff us into accepting a wretched existence, while they swank around in luxury villas and first class travel -- 'Wealth is bad, poverty is uplifting'. So, what about the poor? Subramanian and Tantri, from the Indian School of Business write that the poor do not keep much cash, because they spend all they earn, so just one visit to a bank will be sufficient to change what they have. This assumes that the poor never indulge in any trade, such as selling a plot of land or a buffalo, to build a house or pay for a marriage. Assuming the poor have no savings means that their lives depend on working everyday. People will not employ labor if they have no currency to pay them with. About 400,000 jobs are to be lost from textiles, garments, leather and jewellery industries. We do not know how many jobs will be lost from the unorganized sectors, such as construction and small scale industries. Interestingly, labor prefer to lose their jobs than be paid into their bank accounts because they will lose their 'Below Poverty Line' benefits if they are shown to earn more than Rs 50,000 in a year. So much for a cashless society. Farmers have no cash to buy seeds, fertilisers or pesticides. They cannot even borrow money because village money-lenders will have no cash to lend. What about the rich, they must be crying because their black money has been hit? The richest 1% Indians own 58.4% of wealth. They can use cards at an upper end shop, eat at a 5-star restaurant or even fly out to Bangkok, for a meal. If you are a billionaire you can take a hit of Rs 100 million and wait for new notes to revive business. One writer thinks that forcing Indians to use cards will change our habit of using cash. Apparently, behavioral economics shows that a 'nudge' works better than persuasion. Writing for Bloomberg, Elaine Ou says that in Nigeria, which is more corrupt than even India, people pay by using mobile minutes and have even created their own currency. Economist, Larry Summers says that people will lose trust in government. Possibly, the Prime Minister thought, like everyone else, that Hillary Clinton will win which would mean markets will rise, foreign investors will stay and the rupee will remain strong. Instead, we are headed for a deep recession. People may applaud but they will act in their own interest. Sometimes you can be too clever.