Thursday, November 17, 2016

Not like World War I, more like the French Revolution.

Well known financier, Ruchir Sharma thinks that the victory of Donald Trump is similar to the start of World War I in 1914. "The age of globalisation generated great prosperity" he writes."But the elite gained the most. And, as inequality rose, it stirred pockets of fierce resentment among those left behind. When the great shock came, the discontented turned to nationalist firebrands, who promised to impose controls on free trade, global banks and immigrants." "The share of income going to the richest 1% of Americans rose steadily from 1870 to a peak of nearly 20% in the late 1920s, as global commerce created a 'gilded age' plutocracy," he says. It is much worse today. The richest 62 billionaires in the world own as much wealth as bottom 50% of the population and the top 1% own more wealth than the the other 99%. During the Great Depression the poor suffered more than the rich, families broke apart and minorities suffered more than whites. After financial collapse of 2008 big banks were rescued by governments, because they were apparently too big to fail, while ordinary people, who were led to believe that growth will continue forever, lost their homes to foreclosures. Perhaps, academics misread sentiment of the masses. Majority of people do not resent the wealthy, provided the wealth was acquired fairly, through knowledge and hard work. They resent, what they see, as unfairness. The October Revolution in Russia in 1917 was a replica of the French Revolution in 1789. Both were against corrupt monarchies, spending tax money on lavish parties, while the people starved. Louis XVI and Tsar Nicholas were both executed. Since, 2008 central banks have adopted unconventional monetary polices in the belief that if you load banks with cash they will be forced to lend to new investments. Instead, the wealthy borrowed cheaply to buy up assets which made inequality even worse. Central banks are trapped in their own creations, fearful that any attempt at raising rates will result in a collapse of markets. Goldman Sachs is advising people to increase their debt, to spend more. Why? Because middle class people can no longer maintain their standard of living on their salaries, while property prices zoom upwards. The German economy, the only one doing well in Europe, slowed down in the third quarter. Politicians, civil servants and the rich are insulated against economic failure, the rest of us helpless. The abuse on Trump has been relentless and is still continuing. Calling him a "monster" means that the people are monsters. Perhaps a little humility would have helped. Sorry, we really messed up.

No comments: