Saturday, November 05, 2016

It is still survival of the fittest. Even in economics.

Prof Noah Smith writes how liberal economists are modifying their macroeconomic theories. Those to the left are gaining momentum with their stress on public housing, welfare and public education. That maybe because inflation is stuck at very low levels and government spending on public welfare will have the effect of increasing spending and may result in higher prices. Increasing minimum wage does not cause immediate disruption in the availability of labor. That maybe because a record 94.7 million people are out of the labor market in the US, because they cannot find jobs, so competition is keeping wages low. But it is not all gloom in the US. In 2015, after many years of no rise, median household income rose by 5.2%, the highest since 1960s, and poverty fell by 1.2%. But elsewhere the news is alarming. Just 1% of the world's population, that is 18.5 million households, holds 47% of the entire wealth of the world. Last month the International Monetary Fund warned of growing risks to financial stability, both in developed and in emerging economies. The total global debt has risen from less than 200% of global GDP to 225%, at $152 trillion, and two-thirds of the debt is held by the private sector, which is acting as a brake on global growth, said the IMF last month. The world's biggest hedge fund feels that China is preparing for its economy to go bust, but will manage because most of its debt is in local currency. However, what happens if China's economy goes into recession, the yuan drops, leading to a flight of capital out of the country, and it severely restricts purchase of commodities, is anyone's guess. Central banks have responded to low growth by flooding the markets with money, first by cutting interest rates to almost zero, 23 countries adopting negative interest rates, then by purchasing assets , known as quantitative easing, and finally actually discussing possibilities of doling out cash to every citizen, known as helicopter money. Helicopter money sounds frivolous so it has morphed to Universal Basic Income, which means giving a fixed sum to every citizen instead of targeting subsidies to the needy. Prof Yanis Varoufakis proposes that shares of every company should go into a central fund so people may be paid from dividends. Prof Debraj Ray recommends a fixed portion of the GDP to be distributed to citizens every year. Economists are now studying evolution in the belief that economies are immensely complex and evolve over time, because human beings are social animals and individual decision making does not explain all the intricacies. Liberals have been running the world since World War II so they are responsible for the current impasse. Yet Hillary Clinton has raised far more money than Donald Trump. Some must have gained at our expense. Haven't they? 

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