Sunday, November 13, 2016

Impossible to make sense of events.

In the evening last Tuesday the Prime Minister, Narendra Modi suddenly announced the abolition of all Rs 1,000 and Rs 500 notes. We barely had time to digest this bombshell and plan what to do when we received another huge shock. A little after lunch on Wednesday we were told that Donald Trump had defeated Hillary Clinton, who had been expected to win by a canter, and was to be the 45th President of the US. Since then all conversation has centered around these two events, with everyone giving his two penny worth of opinion. Liberals insist that Clinton has won the popular vote by a mile and Trump's victory is invalid. The other side sneer at liberals for being poor losers. Yah-boo, sucks. Here, some are ecstatic for Modi sticking it to the black money fellows while others insist that this move will have no effect. Everyone is puzzled as to how replacing Rs 1,000 note with a Rs 2,000 will hinder accumulation of black money in the future. Now we learn that the Reserve Bank wanted to issue notes in denominations of Rs 5,000 and Rs 10,000 but was prevented from doing so because it would have taken longer. Why it would take longer to print and transport a high value note is a mystery. An even bigger mystery is what we are supposed to do with these expensive notes. Firstly, it will be a pickpockets dream. It is one thing to lose a couple of Rs 500 notes, imagine losing a couple of Rs 10,000 notes. Secondly, imagine buying a loaf of bread and 6 eggs, worth a total of Rs 100, and then expecting the shopkeeper to return Rs 9,900 in change. The only people who can possibly have any use for such high value notes are those who would want to store cash in secret, also known as black money. If human actions are so incomprehensible haw scary is artificial intelligence going to be? To answer that question Stanford University, in the US, has constituted a 17 member panel to start a 100-year study on AI. This panel has just published its first report, in which it seeks to allay fears. "The frightening, futurist portrayals of artificial intelligence that dominate films and novels, and shape the popular imagination, are fictional.....Unlike in movies, there is no race of superhuman robots on the horizon or probably even possible," says the report. That depends on the definition of superhuman. A robot will beat any human in brute force. Indeed we already have machines capable of lifting enormous weights. What about brains? One of the greatest chess players of all time, Garry Kasparov was beaten by a computer, Deep Blue. Thing is, AI is being designed by humans and they are probably unable to see the real danger. AI is based on algorithm, which has to be logical, while we are illogical. As the notes show. Huge scope for conflict.

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