The times maybe changing, but will they be for the better?

 Professor Rogoff thinks that a hard landing for the Chinese economy is possible and will affect the rest of the world. When will it happen? According to the Bank for International Settlements a credit boom in excess of 10% is followed by a banking crisis and China has reached 30%. But people have been warning about China for many years now. Jim Chanos predicted a crash last year when he discovered that construction of 5.6 billion sq meters, 60 billion sq feet, was underway. Most of it was high-end condos at $100,000, when average Chinese earnings were $10,000 per year. India has also seen a construction boom  with prices almost equal to Manhattan in New York. China has a high level of corruption, just like in India. Bribes and favors have been an accepted part of business, seen as the grease to keep the economy growing. President Xi Jinping has been cracking down on corruption, which is blamed for the economic slowdown. China runs a huge trade surplus every year, whereas India always has a trade deficit. Prime Minister Modi's sudden withdrawal of high denomination notes in India is going to result in a drop in real estate prices in India which will slow down the construction industry, reduce tax collections and reduce the number of jobs, hitting the poor daily wage earners. The Chinese government has the money to stimulate the economy by increasing spending. Do we? China is now facing a double whammy. Its factories are having to put up prices due to rising costs and wages even as global demand remains tepid putting pressure on exports. Rising prices of Chinese goods could be beneficial for economies such Japan, which is in deflation, and for Europe where inflation remains very weak. Japan and the 19 member Eurozone have negative interest rates, to discourage savings and increase spending, so that increased demand will lead to rising prices. Enter Donald Trump. He has promised to levy a tax of 45% on all Chinese goods which could reduce Chinese exports to the US by $420 billion, and foreign direct investment by $426 billion, leading to a fall of 4.82% in China's GDP. China will probably retaliate by taxing US exports to China and may order US companies to leave the mainland, leading to a tit-for-tat economic war. Trump's adviser, Steve Bannon advocates negative interest rates for the US as well. What that will do to the dollar and to international trade is unknown. Meanwhile, the Renminbi has become part of the Special Drawing Rights basket of currencies which may restrict the government's power to tamper with its value. Meanwhile, people in India may decide to buy cheap dollars to collect new black money, to be safe from future demonetisation. Modi quoted Dylan -- "the times they are a changin". Maybe, but will they be for the better?