Friday, November 18, 2011

More economic news, all bad. Rural Consumer Price Index has risen from 9.25 to 9.73% in October. Inflation is reducing buying power of the people prompting the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy to warn of serious slowdown in manufacturing, cargo traffic, coal and gas production. Net profits of 1360 listed companies fell 9.2% last quarter and is set to fall further. TOI, November 19. To win the last general elections in 2009 the Congress used taxpayer money for naked bribery. Bank loans of farmers were written off, useless civil servants were given 80% rises in salaries and the MNREGA scheme was started which pays villagers for doing nothing. This massive injection of money supply resulted in inflation of over 10%. Desperate to manage the resulting fiscal deficit every activity was brought under service tax, petrol was increased to Rs 70/ lit and every road has become a toll road. Naturally so many taxes added to inflation forcing the RBI to increase interest rates 13 times to no avail. Rising prices means the rupee buys less and less so one would have expected the currency to fall against major currencies like the dollar and the euro. This did not happen all this time because Eurozone economies are struggling to contain a debt crisis and the US politicians cannot agree on how to reduce its massive debt. Ministers try to fool us by blaming external factors for the mess but so far they have been beneficial. No longer. The rupee has fallen 15% to 51 to the dollar. This will fire to inflation by increasing import prices, especially oil. The World Famous Economist is roaming the world. Perhaps he is enjoying before having to vacate his kursi.

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