Monday, November 21, 2011

Arab spring is rapidly transforming into Arab blizzard. After a lull of several months protesters are back on the streets of Cairo, this time demanding the removal of the armed forces ruling council and a handover to a civilian government. Thirty three were killed and 1500 injured. The army is demanding special privileges for itself in the new constitution and will not give up its powers easily. Just like in Pakistan the Egyptian army controls large sections of trade, has a huge budget for salaries and pensions and large tracts of land for comfortable housing. Why should they give up all this without a fight? The American army demands the right to slaughter foreigners in their own countries without any of their soldiers having to face justice. It is in the nature of armies to occupy, collect booty and defend their privileges, with violence if necessary. However, a change to civilian rule may not be what the world is hoping for. Tunisians have voted in an Islamist Ennahda party to power. When given the opportunity Palestinians voted in Hamas. Al Azhar mosque is in Cairo where the Muslim Brotherhood was born so an Islamist government is the most likely. However, whichever party comes to power it will not be able to fulfill demands of the people. The protests originally started with demands for jobs, food and the means to get married. Global food prices are set to remain high. High oil and commodity prices with a looming recession in Europe and the US will restrict growth and prospects of jobs. But the main obstacle to prosperity is uncontrolled growth in population. No government can provide for unlimited numbers. Only a calamity will wake people up.

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