Thursday, November 17, 2011

As expected the situation in Syria is cooking nicely. Peaceful protests are gradually giving way to armed attacks by protesters and deserters from the army. Superficially it may resemble Libya but Syria is much more complex. It has a mainly Sunni population ruled by a minority Shia government which controls the armed forces and the civil service. This minority will lose all its privileges if Sunnis take over and, knowing the level of hatred between them, will suffer many casualties. Naturally the regime is close to Iran, the only Shia country in the middle east. It is possible that Iranian Revolutionary Guards are directing the killing of protesters. The Arab league led by Saudi Arabia, which hates Iran, has suspended membership of Syria forgetting how the Sunni minority regime brutally crushed the Shia majority in Bahrain with Saudi Arabia sending in its troops. Turkey, a close ally in the past, is giving shelter to rebels and threatening to cut off electricity supplies. Prime Minister Erdogan has said that the future cannot be built on " the blood of the oppressed " quite forgetting the genocide of Armenians in the past and the persecution of Kurds at present. The west is hamstrung. Having deceived the Security Council into authorising a no-fly zone over Libya on the pretence of protecting civilians they actively attacked Gaddafi and his family. Now China and Russia will veto any resolution on Syria. One option will be to attack Iran. Recently an IAEA report said that Iran is close to making a nuclear bomb. Was this to give US and its allies the excuse they need to attack Iran? Israel is already threatening to do so. Will the Saudis help Israel? So devious! Love it.

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