Friday, November 25, 2011

Ignorance, they say, is bliss. In no other country is it so true as in India. Surveys consistently show that Indian consumers and businesses are optimistic about the future and think that growth will continue until India is one of the richest countries in the world. Tell any Indian that our cities are filthy and they look all round, bewildered. We have a blind spot in our brains which no other people have and that is probably why we cannot see the shite the economy is in. Our GDP is $1.73 trillion or Rs 66.95 trillion and our sovereign debt was 64.12% of GDP in 2010, around Rs 40 trillion. However, even the RBI has said that our figures are completely unreliable which means that our debt could be considerably higher. Ten year bond yields have risen to 8.93%. It is 9.5% for Hungary and 12.64% for Portugal which have been reduced to junk status. Ireland, which required the IMF to rescue it from a default, is at 8.21% which is lower than India. The difference is that these countries have to borrow from international banks while our government forces public sector banks to finance its spending with money that we deposit in savings accounts. This allows the government to exceed deficit limits that it has set itself in the budget and that is why the Congress is so desperate for growth to continue in spite of double digit inflation. Without growth tax collections may decline and deficit will be uncontrollable. Indira Gandhi had to go begging to the IMF and was apparently humiliated. I may have been harsh on the World Famous Economist. He understands the mess we are in and is and is on a luxury trip around the world at our expense. Clever, clever.

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