Sunday, March 31, 2024

The larger the better.

"Overseas Indians sent home a record $29 billion by way of remittances in the December quarter as steadily climbing returns from FCNR (foreign currency-non resident) instruments have made such savings plans more lucrative than bank deposits in the West. To be sure, remittances are a source of permanent flows, unlike repatriable NRI deposits, and these help in narrowing the current account deficit (CAD), which has steadily shrunk as a percentage of India's gross domestic product (GDP)." ET. "India's CAD narrowed to 1.2% of GDP in the October-December quarter largely due to higher services exports, The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said. The CAD stood at $10.5 billion in the third quarter of financial year 2023-24 compared with $11.4 billion or 1.3% of GDP in the preceding quarter." ET. "As high-earning Indians settle abroad they're infusing billions into local economies." Indians are the largest diaspora as "according to the UN around 18 million Indians now live overseas". "The growing Indian diaspora is spending, saving and investing in a number of ways, both within India and across the world." "An especially big factor in this mass capital movement is remittance payments back to India, which hit a record of $125 billion in 2023, up from about $100 billion the year before." "Data from Pew Research Center in 2021 showed that amid a population of around 4.4 million, Indians born outside the US earn an average of $120,000 per year." BBC. "India's bulging pipeline of large block trades and listings such as the $3 billion IPO of Hyundai Motor's unit will draw more funds to a market whose share of global equity capital market deals hit a quarterly record this year, bankers say." "Indian companies raised $2.3 billion in the first quarter of 2024 in IPOs, according to LSEG data, up more than 12 times the $166.5 million raised in the same period last year." Reuters. "Riding on a bull run, equity investors became richer by Rs 128.77 lakh crore (Rs 128.77 trillion) in 2023-24 fiscal, driven by robust fundamentals of the Indian economy, increased investment inflows and promising corporate earnings." "The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 14,659.83 points or 24.85% in 2023-24. The benchmark hit its all-time high of 74,245.17 on March 7." PTI. In all this flood of good news, "In 2022-23, FDI (foreign direct investment) equity inflows declined by 22% year-on-year to $46 billion." "In the 10-year period to 2022-23, the FDI grew at a CAGR of 6.6% compared to 27% in the previous 10-year period." "According to Ritesh Kumar Singh, a corporate economist and a former assistant director of the Finance Commission of India, foreign investors remain hesitant towards India due to uncertainties in tax regimes, bureaucratic hurdles, and difficulties in enforcing contracts." TNIE. What flows in can flow out, so "India's central bank will keep building its forex reserves as it seeks to build larger buffers and strong inflows into the country's equity and debt markets give it an opportunity to do so," as "FX reserves rose to a record high of $642.63 billion as of March 22." Reuters. Remittances and share market, is that it? May need large buffers. Very large.       

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