Wednesday, March 06, 2024

Let the foreigners work it out.

"India's GDP grew 8.4% over a year earlier in the October-December quarter," but "Gross value added, which strips out indirect taxes and subsidies, is estimated to have grown 6.5%. The divergence was on account of net indirect taxes and is unlikely to be sustainable." NDTV. However, "Gross capital formation has been stagnant below its peak for a decade and private capex is still anemic.""Net FDI (foreign direct investment) as a percentage of of GDP now stands at 1.2%, its lowest since 2005. In comparison, Vietnam has absorbed net FDI inflows at an average rate of above 5% of GDP since 2007." FDI is necessary because it is sticky, provides patient capital for industrialization, increases total factor productivity, and spreads foreign technology to local firms, wrote Diva Jain. Naturally, "The stock market index keeps attaining new peaks, indicating investor optimism," because "the Survey of Professional Forecasters on Macroeconomic Indicators, conducted by the Reserve Bank of India, had predicted a GDP growth rate of 6-6.9% for this year ending in March, very recently." Forecasters cannot be out by almost 2%.  Also, consumption constitutes 55% of GDP and this has grown at an average of 3.5% over the last 11 years, according to the National Sample Survey, wrote Ajit Ranade. "India's economy has performed well and stronger-than-expected data in 2023 has caused us to raise our 2024 growth to 6.8% from 6.1%," said rating agency Moody's in its Global Macro Outlook 2024-25. "The statistics ministry also raised its GDP growth estimate for FY24 to 7.6% in its second revised estimate, up from 7.3%." Mint. For some unknown reason, "India's Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran has prompted various agencies to reassess their projections for India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, advocating figures closer to 7% or higher for the fiscal year 2025." CNBC. Extremely weird. FY24 will start on 1 April 2024, and predicting growth rate till 31 March 2025 will need assumptions on variables, such as agriculture, which is dependent on a good, evenly distributed monsoon, global growth rate, which will influence our exports, and geopolitical events, which may cause supply disruptions, thus raising prices. A coalition government at the Centre following general election, and another pandemic scare were also mentioned by the RBI Governor. ET. India's Household Consumption Survey 2022-23 is flawed because of dubious data, because "Major problem: those surveyed have no incentives to tell the truth and many to fib." For instance, villagers in India, "If asked by fellow villagers, they will exaggerate to impress. If asked by outsiders, they will claim to be in deep distress, just in case that qualifies them for some freebie." And, "Most rich folk refuse to be interviewed, and the rest are economical with the truth," wrote Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar. Instead of lecturing foreigners, why not publish absolute figures and let them work out the percentages? They are qualified enough to do that.

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