Sunday, March 17, 2024

Unlikely to happen.

 "An assessment by US intelligence agencies warns of a 'potential' armed conflict between India and China amid large troop deployments by both sides and sporadic encounters between their militaries, adding the border dispute 'will remain a strain' on ties between the neighbors. The assessment further states that China is looking to establish military bases at multiple locations - including Sri Lanka and Pakistan - in its attempt to 'project power' and 'protect China's interests abroad." HT. India has deployed, "A 10,000 strong unit of soldiers previously assigned to the country's western border has now been set aside to guard a stretch of its frontier with China," and "In addition, an existing contingent of 9,000 soldiers, already designated to the disputed Chinese border, will be brought under the newly created fighting command." ET. True, India was defeated and humiliated and lost a significant amount of territory in the 1962 war with China (Britannica), but that was then. In June 2020, 45 Chinese soldiers were killed in hand-to-hand fighting with Indian soldiers in the Galwan Valley in Ladakh. India Today. Besides, an army full of 'Little Emperors' of China's one-parent families (NPR) may not have the appetite for a bloody conflict. The US seems to wish a war between India and China. Why? Maybe, because it is terrified of having to fight China. The war in Ukraine was deliberately engineered by the expansion of NATO (Britannica) despite western propaganda vilifying Russian President Putin. "Fast forward two years and hopes of a Ukrainian victory look diminished and increasingly hollow, as do Western pledges to support Ukraine 'for as long as it takes'." CNBC. "The Joe Biden administration and the US Congress have directed about $75 billion in assistance to Ukraine, which includes humanitarian, financial, and military support, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy." CFR. In addition, "The US Navy is encountering a tenacious threat in the Red Sea." "Although the Navy has invested heavily in anti-air technology, including most notably the Aegis combat system for the past several decades, the most effective missiles are also the most expensive and most difficult to produce." And, "China's rocket troops can potentially field thousands of missiles that can reach across wide swaths of the Pacific." CNBC. This is relevant because, "US President Joe Biden has warned China that the US will defend the Philippines in case of any attack in the disputed South China Sea." BBC. Then there is the fear of a Trump return. "It has become rank heresy in liberal circles to define Donald Trump as anything but the second coming of Hitler, or at least Mussolini." "Yet, during Trump's first presidency, no new major wars were started, a first for any administration since the onset of the national security state 80 years ago." Dawn. The deep state in the US (wikipedia) is terrified of being found for what it is - a deep rot in the US government and society. If it can somehow get China to concentrate on India it will take away a major stress on the US. And give it time. Sadly, it's not going to happen.    

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