Sunday, March 03, 2024

Are the Indian markets better?

In the last year, tech giants the 'Magnificent Seven' "are up by 80% on average, and account for more than half of all US stock market gains over that time." In the past small caps gained with the rest of the market but, "Now, the small caps are down and out." "India's bull market is, by contrast, a broad-based  classic." "While large cap stocks are gaining in India, medium and small caps have gained even more." "It's now even more expensive than US market and also less volatile, suggesting a very strong conviction on the part of investors that good times will roll on," cheered Ruchir Sharma. "Market participants believe that Indian equity markets will continue to command a valuation premium compared to the global peers, thanks to increased participation from the domestic investors, who are pumping in money in the local stocks through SIPs and direct investments." BT. "Both the Sensex and Nifty touched their record highs on Friday, March 1," as the Sensex rose by 1245 points to an all-time high of 73,745, while the Nifty also rose to a record 22,327, a rise of 344 points. HT. Both the indices opened even higher this morning before giving up some of the gains because of profit booking. "While the blue-chips rose at the open, the broader, more domestically focused small- and mid-caps dropped 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively, on rising concerns over excessive fund flows into the segments." Reuters. This rise in small caps is risky, wrote Vivek Kaul. "The BSE SmallCap Index stood at 7,004 points as on 2 January 2007. It doubled to 13,975 points by 7 January 2008 and then fell by almost four-fifths to 2,867 points by 9 March 2009." It reached 13,975 points only after 9 years on 16 March 2017. Retail investors could get badly hurt. In fact, "Indian households are investing more in stocks than it may seem," wrote Kaul. That is because the Life Insurance Corporation had invested in close to 300 stocks as of December 2023 and other insurance companies also invest in stocks. The Employees Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) invests 15% of contributions in exchange traded funds (ETFs). EPFO invested Rs 1.29 trillion in ETFs from April 2023 to March 2023. The National Pension System also invests in stocks. "India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) now ranks fifth in the world. And it is expected to reach third place by 2030." "However, on the basis of per capita income, India was ranked 161st in the early 1990s and is now 159th." That's because "The bulk of growth gains of the past three decades have been concentrated among a small segment of the population." But, though small, India's huge population means that even this number is large enough to attract foreign businesses, wrote Prof Maitreesh Ghatak. So is the Indian market better than the US market, or is it waiting to implode? It could well be decided by the US.   

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