Wednesday, March 20, 2024

Classic or froth.

"The (US) Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday (yesterday), but policymakers indicated they still expect to reduce them by three-quarters of a percentage point by the end of 2024 despite stodgier expected progress towards the US central bank's 2% inflation target." "The Fed's new policy statement described" "consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy rising at a 2.6% rate by the end of the year", "Growth is seen at 2.1% for the year" and "the unemployment rate is seen ending the year at 4%." ET. In reaction, "US stock markets hit record highs," as "The S&P 500 rose 0.8%, finishing at 5,224.62," "the Dow Jones Industrial Average popped about 1% to close at a record of 39,512," and "The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the gains, rising more than 1% to close at a record level of 16,369." yahoo. The US  market "is all about one big sector, tech, and within that sector," "the Magnificent Seven are up by 80% on average, and account for more than half of all US stock market gains over that time." "India's bull market is, by contrast, a broad-based classic," wrote Ruchir Sharma. Indeed, "Nvidia's stock price jumped 16% to $785.38...increasing the company's market value by a staggering $277 billion in just a single day, setting a new record." The single-day surge was more than the entire market capitalization of all listed IT companies in India at approximately $260 billion and that of India's most valuable company Reliance Industries, valued at about $240 billion. Mint. Whereas the US market regulator the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) which "is an independent federal government regulatory agency responsible for protecting investors" (Investors) seems unperturbed, India's market regulator the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) (wikipedia) "chief Madhabi Puri Bach...flagged 'froth' in small and mid-cap stocks, referring to the 'off the charts' valuations in these market segments." "Her comments come at a time when the small and mid-cap shares have outperformed major indices." TOI. "Stocks are riding an intense bull market - notwithstanding intermittent corrections - driven by a broad-based boom. With large caps gaining, mid- and small-caps are rising even faster, with hints of froth and a spreading equity culture," said the monthly bulletin from the Reserve Bank (RBI). MC. "The shares of income and wealth of India's top 1% at 22.6% and 40.1% respectively is at their 'highest historical levels' in 2022-23, beating even developed economies such as the US, according to a paper released by the World Inequality Lab." MC. Stock market froth is necessary to increase the wealth of Dear Leader's friends but Dear Leader will not be best pleased if it pops just before general election, starting on 19 April (wikipedia). While the US Fed is trying for a soft landing of the economy, our regulators are trying for a soft landing of stock markets. Till the election is over.     

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