Thursday, March 28, 2024

Bidding for growth.

"India has retained the title of the world's fastest growing major economy as it expanded 8.4% in the last three months of 2023, from a year earlier. The data comes as the country is set to hold a general election this year. BBC. The election will be held in 7 phases from 19 April to 1 June and results will be declared on 4 June." TOI. That will be a big yawn because Prime Minister Narendra Modi has already announced a landslide victory with a total of 400 seats out of 543 in the Lok Sabha. The News Mill. And why not, when eminent economists are bidding against each other to predict the rate of growth of India's economy? India can grow at 8% till 2047, if the country can redouble the good policies, said India's executive director at International Fund (IMF) Krishnamurthy Venkata Subramanian. DH. "And if India grows at 8%, India can become a USD 55 trillion by 2047," he added. As of 07 February, India is the fifth largest economy in the world with a nominal GDP of $4.112 trillion. Forbes. We are in 2024 which means there are 23 years to 2047. Hence at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% our GDP should grow to $24.14 trillion by 2047. investor.gov. Not $55 trillion. "India needs to grow at 9-10 percent for the next three decades to become a USD 35 trillion by 2047, India's G20 Sherpa Amitabh Kant said." ET. That's chump change. "India can achieve a growth rate of 10% in the next decade and become the second-largest economy by 2032 and the largest by 2050, given the energies and transformation driving the nation to overcome its challenges, said RBI Deputy Governor Michael Debabrata Patra." ET. Anyone bidding more than that? Referring to the 8.4% growth rate, "Former chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanian...said India's GDP numbers are 'absolutely mystifying' and difficult to comprehend." BS. "They don't add up. I don't know what they mean," he said. Clean your glasses, man. "Well, if you are mystified, first you check whether the mist is on your glasses or somewhere else, said Dr Arvind Panangariya." ET. Excellent advice. Better still, consult an optician. "India is making a big mistake believing the 'hype' around its strong economic growth since there are significant structural problems that need to be fixed for the country to meet its potential, former central bank Governor Raghuram Rajan said." Such as "education and skills of the workforce". Horrified outrage. Dear Leader can walk on water. "NITI Aayog member Arvind Virmani,..said that Rajan sounded like 'parachute economists' who are cut off from ground realities." ET. Bhakts (DH) can fly without parachutes. "At the last count, there were over 10 million child laborers and 43 million children who were denied the right to an education," wrote Bhuwan Ribhu. Children do not vote. They do not count in the 400.

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