Friday, March 15, 2024

Need mystifying growth.

"The Indian economy is likely to transition to an upper-middle income country, with per capita income of $4466, between the financial years 2033 and 2036, Indian Ratings and Research said." "Until 2006, the World Bank classified India as a low-income country. In 2007, India moved to the lower middle-income country and since then has remained there." DH. "Investment has emerged as a significant contributor to India's thriving economy, according to economists at Morgan Stanley. They also noted that the nation's current growth trajectory mirrors that of the mid-2000s, a period characterised by an average growth rate beyond 8%." ABP. "Surpassing the expectations of analysts, India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) registered a robust growth of 8.4% on an annual basis in the third quarter (October-December), as against an 8.1% in the previous quarter, data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) showed." ET. But, "Indian industrial activity in January grew at a weaker-than-expected rate of 3.8% year-on-year on the back of slowdown in manufacturing and mining activity, government data showed." "Manufacturing activity in January rose 3.2% year-on-year, slower than 4.5% in the same month the previous year." Reuters. India's merchandise exports grew by 12% to $41.4 billion and cumulative exports in the 11 months between April 2023 and February 2024 stood at $395 billion. Services exports in February were $32.15 billion and in 11 months to February were $314.82 billion. HT. "India's forex kitty jumped by USD 10.47 billion to USD 636.095 billion for the week ended March 8, the Reserve Bank (RBI) said," while, "the foreign currency assets, a major component of the reserves, increased by USD 8.121 billion to USD 562.352 billion." BS. Net investment by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) into equity and debt from 1 January to 15 March stood at Rs 75695 crore (Rs 756.95 billion) which would convert to about $9 billion. NSDL. With the RBI buying so much foreign currency, the resultant increase in liquidity has suppressed yields on 10-year bonds to 7.062 on 15 March. It had fallen to a low of 7.014 on 11 March. investing.com. However, "Former chief economic adviser Arvind Subramanian...said India's latest GDP numbers are 'absolutely mystifying' and difficult to comprehend." "Elaborating further Subramanian said while the implied inflation in these numbers is 1 to 1.5 percent, actual inflation in the economy is somewhere between 3 and 5 percent." ET. Perhaps, even higher (RI). "Economist Sanjeev Sanyal...said India needs to sustain the current growth momentum to reach the "bottom echelons" of being considered a developed country." As "developing fast in imperative, because by 2047, India would have aged and be in the same place as China is right now." ET. "China's population fell for a second consecutive year in 2023 (Reuters)" because the fertility rate fell to a record low of 1.2, much below the replacement level of 2.1, in 2021 (World Bank). Can India become a developed country by 2047? Yes, if its growth rate remains "mystifying". 

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