Friday, October 07, 2022

All about numbers.

"India's growth story will be second to none in the world," said Union Minister Piyush Goyal. And "India will be a USD 30 trillion economy by 2047 by the time it completes 100 years of independence." "Based on available data a good case can be made that growth would touch the 8% mark in the current fiscal year and sustain at a 7-8% rate in the medium term. By my calculation, the country would become the third largest in the world by the end of 2027-28 if not sooner," Prof Arvind Panagariya went one better. Becoming the richest country in the world attracts attention. "The European Union (EU) has withdrawn preferential tariffs for several Indian imports, including textiles and apparel, chemicals, leather works, gems and jewelery products and railway equipment, reducing some of the advantage to goods shipped from the country." TOI. "The World Bank trimmed India's growth forecast for this financial year by a full percentage point," Reuters. "India's forecast was trimmed to 6.5% from 7.5%." "Last week, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its growth forecast to 7% from an earlier estimate of 7.2% after raising the benchmark repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.9% as it battles to contain high inflation - seen to remain above 6% until early 2023." The question is: how much above 6%? Both 6.1% and 10% are above 6%. A lot depends on the price of oil. "A panel of OPEC+ ministers recommended a cut to the group's output limits of 2 million barrels a day as they seek to halt a slide in oil prices caused by the weakening global economy." ET. "A reduction of 2 million barrels a day in the group's output target, shared pro rata, would require just eight countries to reduce actual production and would deliver a real cut of 880,000 barrels a day according to Bloomberg calculations." "The Indian government has a moral duty to provide energy to its citizens and it will continue to buy oil from wherever it has to, Union Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri said..., asserting that no country has told India to stop buying oil from Russia." "India's crude oil imports from Russia have jumped over 50 times since April and now it makes up for 10 percent of all crude bought from overseas." Of course, no one can tell us where to buy our oil but "The US...asked its citizens to exercise 'increased caution' while traveling to India due to 'crime and terrorism' and advised them not to travel to the union territory of Jammu and Kashmir." ET. Earlier, "In what appears to be a bizarre travel advisory, Canada has advised its citizens to avoid all travel to areas in states of Gujarat, Punjab and Rajasthan, which share a border with Pakistan due to the 'presence of landmines' and 'unpredictable security situation'." ET. We care about energy, the US cares about inflation. "US employers hired more workers than expected in September, while the unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%." Reuters. "The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 502 points, or 1.68%, while the Nasdaq slipped 2.72%." ET. $30 trillion or third biggest, which to aim for?

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