Racing ahead of others.

For India, "Based on available data, a good case can be made that growth would touch the 8% mark in the current fiscal year and sustain at a 7-8% rate in the medium term," wrote Prof Arvind Panagariya. "By my calculation, the country would become the third largest in the world by the end of 2027-28 if not sooner." China and the US better watch out. Because, the GDP may grow at a total of 18.5% in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters of this financial year, scope for huge catch-up growth in services, falling unemployment rates, contrary to claims based on faulty surveys, and economic reforms. Also, global merchandise trade was $22 trillion in 2021 compared to just $6.5 trillion in 2000 when China was entering global markets in a big way. "In a world tipping towards recession and higher inflation: Vietnam, Indonesia, India, Greece, Portugal, Saudi Arabia and Japan" "share some combination of relatively strong growth, moderate inflation and strong stock market returns - compared to other countries," wrote Ruchir Sharma. "Though India's growth is always flattered by its low base, its economy will continue to be one of the world's fastest growing." Despite "high inflation and high twin deficits, India has been called a rare shining spot" because the GDP is expected to grow at 7%, foreign direct investment (FDI) was $18.9 billion in April-July 2022, foreign portfolio investors (FPI) bought $7.5 billion worth in July-September and "Banks are lending vigorously and credit growth accelerated by 16.2% as on September 9, as against 6.7% last year," wrote Amitabh Chaudhury. Prospects for the US and Europe are decidedly gloomy, wrote Prof Nouriel Roubini. "Since World War II, there has never been a case where the Fed achieved a soft landing with inflation above 5% (it is currently above 8%) and unemployment below 5% (it is currently 3.7%)." Between January and June 2022, US and global equity indices have fallen 20% while long-term bond yields have risen from 1.5% to 3.5% as "highly indebted firms, shadow banks, households, governments and countries are entering a debt distress. The crisis is here." "Data from the Institute of International Finance suggests that global debt as of March 2022 stood at $305 trillion, or 348% of the world's gross domestic product (GDP), up from 286% in 2007," wrote Vivek Kaul. As central banks printed money to bring down interest rates to extremely low levels it "led to tremendous misallocations of capital". Finally, the US Fed has shrunk its balance sheet from $8.96 trillion to $8.79 trillion, "But the money printed by other rich-world central banks, running into trillions of units of their respective currencies, is still floating around." India's "Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), as a proportion of GDP, rose to 29.2% in the three months till end-June" "And yet, despite New Delhi's large outlays, private investment demand seems resolutely inelastic to inducements; the private sector remains investment shy despite data that suggests capacity utilization has begun hitting a wall." Mint. Everything seems rosy. Why are people reluctant?