Saturday, October 15, 2022

We will go past as they limp.

"Inflation in the United States accelerated in September, with the cost of housing and other necessities intensifying pressure on households," as "Consumer prices rose 8.2% in September compared with a year earlier, the government said." "On a month-to-month basis, prices increased 0.4% from August to September after having ticked up 0.1% from July to August." "Inflation at the wholesale level rose 8.5% in September from a year earlier, the third straight decline though costs remain at painfully high levels." ABC News. "Inflation continued to wallop Americans in September, with a key measure of price increases hitting a 40-year high last month, the Labor Department reported." CBS News. "Core inflation, which tracks average price increases except for volatile food and energy costs, rose 6.6% over the past 12 months - its highest since 1982." "More troubling, the monthly price change showed that cost pressures are building." "Once those price increases are registered, it is very difficult to take them back, like it is difficult to give a whole bunch of workers raises and then have pay cuts, the same way it is difficult for landlords to expect less rent in the future," said Jose Torres. So, "the market is expecting the Fed to not only deliver a 75 bps rate hike in November but also at the December meeting." "The decade ahead may well be a stagflationary debt crisis the likes of which we have never seen before," Prof Nouriel Roubini said in a Time essay. "He emphasized that private and public debt, as a share of global GDP, has soared from 200% in 1999 to 350% today." BI. "The pace of sales at US retailers was unchanged in September from August as rising prices for rent and food chipped away at money available for other things." ET. "Consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% of US economic activity." India is not far behind. "India Private Consumption accounted for 61.1% of its Nominal GDP in Jun 2022, compared with a ratio of 59.2% in the previous quarter. India Private Consumption contribution to Nominal GDP ratio is updated quarterly, available from Jun 1996 to Jun 2022, with an average share of 59.5%." ceicdata.com. "Slower growth in the advanced economies may help reduce crude oil and other commodity prices, in turn helping reduce the fiscal burden on India, senior government officials have told Business Today Television." Maybe, but slower growth in India's major export markets such as the US, Europe and China may hurt the government's $750 export target for this financial year. ET. "Exports, which hit an all-time high of $422 in the last financial year are now slowing down," and "The number of new unicorns, startups with a valuation of $1 billion, has sharply come down in the recent months, with foreigners tightening their purse strings anticipating a recession." The Week. "India is likely to become the third-biggest economy behind US and China by FY28." ET. If we become third, not because we have become much richer, but because they have become poor, is it something to cheer about? Might win elections though.  

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