Friday, October 14, 2022

A standout performance.

"In a world of uncertainties, India is one of the very few standout performers, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharman said..., a day after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) described the country as a bright spot in a global economy which is facing a imminent recession." ET. "India deserves to be called a bright spot on this otherwise dark horizon because it has been a fast growing economy, even during these difficult times, but most importantly, this growth is underpinned by structural reforms," IMF MD Kristina Georgieva said. "The size of the Indian economy is projected to cross $5 trillion in 2026-27 and likely to become $20 trillion by 2040, chief economic advisor Anantha Nageswaran said." TOI. "India is on the path to become a USD 30 trillion economy in the next 30 years on the back of strong GDP growth, said Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal." BS. India's nominal GDP at current prices was about $3.2 trillion in 2021. World Bank. It is astonishing, therefore, that despite glowing tributes to our economy by such luminaries, "In a message to major global powers, particularly in the West, finance minister (FM) Nirmala Sitharaman has said that advanced nations must take responsibility for the global spillover 'for their political and economic policy decisions'." HT. She complained that the "triple shock" of the pandemic, the conflict in Europe and rising prices of energy, fertiliser and food will affect growth and inflation for India.  However, she is confident that, "We expect India's growth rate to be around 7.0% this financial year." Of course, foreign countries cannot be blamed for the cut in corporate tax rate from 30% to 22% in September 2019, bringing the effective tax rate to 25.17% including surcharges and cess. BT. In March this year she said that "corporate tax reduction has helped the economy". Corporate tax collections stood at Rs 7.3 trillion in this financial year. BS. In September she asked why the private sector is not investing when foreign companies are keen to invest in India. TOI. "It is widely believed that capex by the Centre will eventually lead to private-sector plough-ins, which are critical for providing the final push to economic growth." Mint. But, the private sector is shy because, "One, a distaste for a jerky policy environment, which renders private plans and projections infructuous. The second is a broader systemic apprehension of an emerging institutional framework that has fostered a forbidding hierarchy of power." Which means ad hoc changes in policy and increasing misuse of power. The share of corporate taxes in overall tax collection fell from 34.5% in 2014-15 to 22.6% in 2020-21, while the share of indirect taxes jumped from 44.4% in 2014-15 to 53.1% in 2020-21 and then fell slightly to 50% in 2021-22. Of this, taxes on petroleum products contributed a total of Rs 21.8 trillion from 2015-16 to 2021-22. TOI. This is highly inflationary, so that retail inflation was 7.41% in September. NDTV. Either we are booming or we are slowing. Tell us which. Please.  

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