Monday, October 10, 2022

Congratulations Ben Bernanke.

"Ben Bernanke who led the US central bank during the 2008 financial crisis, is one of the three recipients of this year's Nobel prize in economics." BBC. Bernanke was a tenured professor of economics at Princeton University from 1996 to 2002 and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve from 2006 to 2014. wikipedia. "Mr Bernanke's research showed how bank runs had prolonged the Great Depression in the 1930s." "When the (2008) financial crisis hit, he pushed the Federal Reserve to intervene aggressively, slashing interest rates and helping to organise bailouts of some of America's biggest banks - moves that were politically controversial." During the financial crisis of 2008 Bernanke pushed the Fed to lower its funds rate to near zero and proposed a 'quantitative easing' program in which the Fed purchased Treasury bond securities and mortgage-backed securities, which increased their prices by creating a scarcity, and pushed down yields. This pushed interest rates down enabling businesses and individuals to borrow at extremely low rates. Investopedia. Bernanke even considers the use of 'helicopter money', which is providing cash handouts to people as a last resort. "First, in theory at least, helicopter money could prove a valuable tool. In particular, it has the attractive feature that it should work even when more conventional monetary policies are ineffective and the initial level of government debt is high," he wrote. Prof Raghuram Rajan was not impressed. "The bottom line is that unconventional monetary policies that move away from repairing markets or institutions to changing prices and inflationary expectations seem to be a step into the dark," he said. Right. On 28 August 2013, the Indian rupee fell 3.7% to an all-time low of 68.85 to the dollar, Reuters, when Bernanke proposed reducing the bond buying program, in what is known as the 'taper tantrum'. The subprime crisis of 2008, caused by excessive mortgage lending to people with limited income, wikipedia, was because of low interest rates to protect the stock market by previous Chairman of the Fed Alan Greenspan in what is known as the "Greenspan put". Investopedia. A chastened Greenspan acknowledged his error in front of a Congressional hearing in 2008. NYT. In a speech on 27 August 2005, Prof Rajan highlighted excessive risk taking based on easy monetary policy and deregulation. IMF. Excessively loose monetary policy by the Fed along with stimulus checks of a total of $3,200 by the US government, CNBC, has led to inflation jumping from 2.6% in March 2021 to 8.3% in September 2022. US Inflation Calculator. That has resulted in the Fed raising interest rate by a total of 300 basis points to 3-3.25%, CNBC. The US may be on the brink of recession with the GDP contracting by 1.6% in the first quarter and by 0.6% in the second. BBC. Rising interest rates in the US has caused the rupee to fall to 82.38 to the dollar. xe.com. Greenspan created the problem by keeping interest rate too low for too long. Bernanke lowered interest rate to zero and added quantitative easing. Which may cause a global recession in 2023. World Bank. He gets a Nobel prize. Congratulations.  

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