Friday, October 28, 2022

Venezuela awaits.

"US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell faces a crucial choice as the central bank battles the worst bout of inflation since the 1970s: What kind of chair will he be? A Paul Volcker, who took interest rates ever higher in an uncompromising effort to get prices under control? Or an Arthur Burns, who acted more timidly, in the ultimately futile hope that a less austere approach might be sufficient to do the job?" ET. Fed officials foresee "rates increasing 75 basis points in November, 50 in December and 25 in January to a peak of 4.50% to 4.75%." "There's no free lunch." "This Fed rate-increase cycle, which has already delivered a total of 3 percentage points in just over six months, is the most front-loaded one in a long time," wrote Mohamed A El-Erian. "After two years of quantitative easing (QE), under which central banks buy long-term bonds from the private sector and issue liquid reserves in return, central banks around the world have begun to shrink their balance sheets," wrote Profs Raghuram Rajan & Viral Acharya. This can cause accidents. "After all the financial system did what it was incentivized to do" as "The system's optimization of that regime involved large debt and leverage; over adherence to unrealistic return objectives; and, for many, venturing well beyond their natural investment habitat and expertise." El Erian. In short, free money encouraged reckless  borrowing and speculation in dubious financial instruments. "Don't expect inflation in the US to fall below 3% within two years, according to Deutsche Bank." BI. "Deutsche Bank relied on 50 developed and emerging market economies, with the data stretching as far back as 100 years in some cases." The European Central Bank (ECB) which is "The central bank for 19 countries that use the euro raised its deposit rate by a further 75 basis points to 1.5% - the highest rate since 2009." Reuters. "It also cut a key subsidy to banks - an attempt to force them to repay trillions of euros' worth of ECB loans." "Germany staved off the threat of recession in the third quarter with unexpected growth," but "Consumer prices harmonized to compare with other European countries, were up 11.6% on the year in October." Reuters. "Are we about to get QT?" Reuters. "Euro zone banks sit on 2.1 trillion euros of cash handed out by the ECB at ultra-low, sometimes even negative rates, aimed at boosting the economy. But quick and big rate hikes mean banks can park this cash back at the ECB, earning risk free profit, irking policymakers who view it as gaming the system." Narayan Ramachandran listed 5 phases of central bank action - from large QE to controlling inflation whatever it takes in phases 1 to 3. Phase 4 may be control inflation but prudently and may even resort to  phase 5 "where the received wisdom of maintaining 2% inflation for developed markets and 4% inflation for emerging markets begins to drift upwards". Permanently high inflation will be disastrous for the poor. As emerging markets have more poor people they will suffer more. More Hugo Chavez , more Venezuelas.            

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