Saturday, October 08, 2022

No need for actual data.

"New Delhi, December 16, 2020 - The Government of India and the World Bank today signed a $400 million project to support India's efforts at providing social assistance to the poor and vulnerable households, severely impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic." World Bank. "The first operation of $750 million was approved in May 2020. It enabled immediate cash transfers to about 320 million individual bank accounts identified under the pre-existing Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana (PMGKY) and additional food rations for about 800 million individuals." "A study by the World Bank has concluded that nearly 80% (56 million out of a total of 70 million) of people who slipped into poverty in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic hailed from India." The Wire. "Since 2011, the Indian government has stopped publishing data on poverty." "It noted that due to lack of official data, the World Bank had relied upon the findings of the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy's (CMIE's) Consumer Pyramid Household Survey (CPHS)." So, the World Bank lent us $1.15 billion ($115 crore) on asking. Not just poverty we do not as yet know how many died of Covid. "More than 4.7 million (47 lakhs) people in India - nearly ten times higher than official records suggest - are thought to have died because of Covid-19, according to a new World Health Organization (WHO) report." BBC. India officially reported just 481,000 deaths from 1 January 2020 to 31 December 2021. "So, we have a uniquely broken death-recording apparatus in the country. The CRS (civil registration system) fails to capture mortality among the poor, among women and among children. The SRS (Sample Registration System) fails to capture deaths among the non-poor and adult men," wrote Pramit Bhattacharya. The goods and services tax (GST) collection hit a record Rs 1,67,540 crore (Rs 1.67540 trillion) in April 2022, suggesting a booming economy. BS. This is supported by, "India's factory output, measured in terms of Index of Industrial Production (IIP) accelerated by 7.1% in April as against 1.9% in March 2022." BS. But, is it? "In a 30 August research note, Credit Suisse analysts Neelkanth Mishra, Abhay Khaitan and Prateek Ancha show that the IIP has consistently understated growth in industrial output over the past decade," wrote Bhattacharya. "A dynamic business register that is able to capture key attributes of all firms operating across sectors can help produce better indices for tracking both industrial and services activity." "Today, they use a 'jugaad' (improvised) method." Of great concern, "Multiple revisions by the Reserve Bank of India in its projections for growth and inflation have caused concern within the government about these being off the mark from actual numbers." TIE. Two ministries "have held internal consultations for developing a system for projecting price trends and growth forecasts, distinct from the actual data collection." How will they make projections without actual data? Won't it be complete fiction? Instead of a partial one. 

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