It's what we do, not what they say.

"India's April-June quarter GDP contracted a massive 23.9% year-on-year (YoY), the first GDP contraction in more than 40 years. As per the National Statistical Office (NSO), gross value added (GVA) came in at -22.8 percent." Mining was down 23.3%, manufacturing by 39.3%, construction by 50.2% and gross fixed capital formation, which gives an indication of new investment, was down 47%. Agriculture was up 3.4%.  "The index of eight core infrastructure sectors dropped to 9.6% in July from a year ago compared to a 12.9% contraction in June, suggesting industrial production may contract again in July." The slowdown is because of severe coronavirus lockdown, said Chief Economic Adviser KV Subramanian. But the country will see a V-shaped recovery in various sectors. "He said indicators like rail fright traffic and electricity consumption are pointing to a recovery in economic activity." The first quarter contraction was inevitable and has already been discounted by markets, as shown by a modest rise in the Bombay Sensex this morning. More important is whether, and by how much, the economy recovers in the rest of the financial year, to 31 March 2021. Unfortunately, "India's economy may shrink by around 10 percent in the current fiscal due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, experts said." The dreaded D-word "is studiously avoided" at the Reserve Bank (RBI), wrote Rajrishi Singhal. "Among economists, it is shorthand for depression (continuous contraction of economic growth), or for deflation, a state of falling prices." "The RBI annual report for 2019-20 is inexplicably silent on the economic shock from demonetization in late 2016 and the hasty implementation of a flawed goods and services tax (GST) soon thereafter." The RBI advises the government to use "fiscal sops" with money raised by selling railways, ports and steel plants but the private sector is unlikely to invest unless there is demand. "RBI paid Rs 1.76 trillion as dividend to the government after months of bullying and some rather unseemly behavior by bureaucrats, leading to premature resignation of former governor Urjit Patel." "But RBI has asked no pointed questions, nor has it sought any detailed explanation" on what happened to the money. "Lack of fiscal space has kept a lid on treasury spending. Even with only modest rescue outlays, the national deficit and debt burden could overshoot their danger marks," wrote an editorial in the Mint. Present Governor of RBI has ruled out stagflation saying that consumer inflation should moderate. "The recent appreciation of the rupee is working toward imported inflationary pressures," said RBI in a note. According to CEIC the real effective exchange rate (REER) for the rupee was 112.4 in July 2020,with base 2005=100, which means it is overvalued. The RBI is ready to sacrifice exports, which are already reeling from falling orders and high import duties on materials and parts, by increasing prices of our goods due to an overvalued exchange rate. The economy reflects what people do. Regardless of what government lackeys say. 

It may not be as cut and dried as it seems.

Just 64 days left till election day in the US, both National Conventions are over and now it is up to candidates to slug it out till 3 November. Except for Fox News, almost all news media are rabidly against President Donald Trump and are already giving a landslide victory to Democrat candidate former Vice President Joe Biden with 203 electoral college (EV) votes assured and another 95 almost there, giving a total of 298 EV votes. 270 are needed to sleep inside the White House for the next 4 years. Predictions are a repeat of 2016. "With hours to go before Americans vote, Democrat Hillary Clinton has about a 90 percent chance of defeating Republican Donald Trump in the race for the White House, according to the final Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project," predicted Reuters. CNN predicted 332 EV votes for Clinton to just 206 for Trump. In the event, Trump won with 306 EV votes and the Republican Party took control of both the House and the Senate. Citing the coronavirus pandemic as a reason, Biden has been campaigning from the basement of his house in Wilmington, Delaware, to accentuate his difference with Trump in his respect for social distancing. Having selected Biden as their candidate, Democrats are advising him not to debate Trump. "Don't tell anybody I told you this. Especially don't tell Joe Biden. I don't think there should be any debates," said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Why? Because, "I think he will probably act in a way that is beneath the dignity of the presidency." Or, perhaps, the Democrats are afraid of bloopers and zingers which can lose the election. Trump has questioned Biden's mental acuity saying, "He doesn't know he is alive." He has challenged Biden to take a drug test before debates. The Democrats are panicking , wrote Tom Del Beccaro for Fox News. Because, "In a poll taken by CBS/YouGov, after the Democrat Convention, President Trump raced to a 10% lead among independents." Party supporters are so divided that "there is little crossover voting between the parties," and that "places a premium on major party enthusiasm (another Biden weakness) and how independents will vote". According to Newt Gingrich, Biden looks unfit to lead the nation, vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris "had wavered between embracing the most radical positions and then opportunistically changing to more moderate positions when she got blowback", and the Biden-Harris ticket has become more radical which will alienate most voters. Perhaps, the biggest problem faced by Biden is how to address the Black Lives Matter protests as they have become more aggressive. Trump has clearly staked his position as on the side of law and order. Biden's running mate Harris identifies herself as a black woman so Biden has to be seen to be sympathetic to protesters even when they resort to looting and burning. We will know on 4 November. Till then it is going to be very entertaining.

Was promise of GST compensation a jumla?

The Central Government has told states that it will not pay compensation for shortfall in collections of goods and services tax (GST). The GST took away the right of states to levy their own taxes on goods and services so the Center promised to compensate for any shortfall, using 2015-16 as the base year and assuming growth in tax collection at 14% per year. However, the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is refusing to honor its pledge. "Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday said the economy has been hit by the Covid-19 pandemic, which is an 'Act of God', and it will see a contraction in the current fiscal. As per the Center's calculations, states will be facing a shortfall of Rs 2.35 lakh crore (Rs 2.35 trillion) in GST revenues in 2020-21." Instead, the Center has given states two options to borrow money from the market, underwritten by the Reserve Bank (RBI), while reducing its own liability by claiming helplessness. But the RBI "is likely to prefer that the Center borrows and gives money to the states" as compensation and so "avoiding the proposed special mechanism for borrowing that would amount to monetisation".The government is lying. GST payments were being delayed since last year, well before anyone heard of the virus. That is because growth in India's gross domestic product (GDP) has fallen every year since hitting a high of 8.3% in 2016-17, to a low of 4.2% in 2019-20. If the economy slows down households have less money to spend -- household consumption actually fell in 2017-18 -- which shows up in lower GST collections. "If the pandemic is an 'Act of God', how do we describe the mismanagement of the economy during 2017-18, 2018-19 and 2019-20. Before the pandemic struck India." asked former finance minister P Chidambaram. "Will the FM as the Messenger of God please answer." Can the government claim 'force majeure', a clause used by businesses for circumstances beyond their control? The Central government has full control of the RBI and can direct the central bank to print more money. Whether the coronavirus was released by China or is an Act of God, "Much of the problem lies with India's disastrous management of the pandemic," wrote Prof Kaushik Basu. "When the lockdown was announced on 24 March, a lot of people got hope from this early action." "Within days, it became clear that no supporting policy action and relief measures that such a major, sudden lockdown needs had been readied." "Leaving aside the lack of empathy and compassion that this policy signalled, it achieved the very opposite of what a lockdown should do. Some 4 or 5% of India's population were literally sent off like sprinklers across the nation." This is the same government that has fought and won against telecom companies on its right to claim taxes on adjusted gross revenue (AGR), which includes revenue from telecom and all other non-telecom businesses of these companies. Trying to cover incompetence. Why blame God? 

India has many types of inflation. Why talk of only one?

In a change to its monetary policy, the US Federal Reserve "promises to aim for 2% inflation on average, so that periods of too-low inflation would likely be followed by an effort to lift inflation 'moderately above 2% for some time'," reported Reuters. "The change suggests the US central bank's key overnight interest rate, already near zero, will stay there for potentially years to come as policymakers woo higher inflation." Fed Chair Jerome Powell's "stated purpose is to reduce joblessness, which is indeed imperative in Covid-hit America", wrote Livemint. But it asks a party-pooper question, "What about asset price inflation? Isn't that where much of the extra cash is going? Does it not count?" The trajectory of inflation is not clear. "Spending may bounce back faster than it did after 2008, and drive prices higher, as a more aggressive policy response has cushioned the blow to household finances," wrote Holland, Curran, Chen and Kim. On the other hand, "the pandemic has left the supply side of the economy intact. Hence, once activity swings back to normalcy, excess capacity can trigger deflation." In India, inflation expectations of households "continue to be significantly above RBI's upper band of 6%", wrote Roshan Kishore. Does it indicate high demand? "The economy had been losing growth momentum even before the pandemic disrupted economic activity" and "has been facing deficient rather than excess demand". Economists have decided that the optimum level of consumer price inflation (CPI) for India is 6.75%, wrote VA Nageswaran. Inflation expectations of households tracks food inflation, which has been low from 2016-19, but the monetary policy committee (MPC) sacrificed growth by keeping interest rates too high. Inflation targeting should be junked, thinks Nageswaran. It has been. "As deposit rates continue to be subdued and real returns turn negative in the wake of rising inflation, the common Indian bank depositor has been left ruing a bitter harvest," wrote Amritesh Malhan. Because the MPC of "The central bank has cut rates by 250 bps (basis points) since February 2019 with the most aggressive reductions coming during the Covid-19 lockdown." With high costs and negative interest rates households are also seeing a drop in the growth of their disposable income. To augment their income people have turned to the stock markets which "have rallied more than 50 percent from the lows touched during the March crash". A lot of them are first time investors with no experience. Worse still, "India's retail investors are leaving their mark on a risky corner of the nation's $1.9 trillion share market: penny stocks." "India's stock market is not in sync with the real economy which will result in a correction, Reserve Bank India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das warned on Friday." If we are to ignore retail inflation for the masses, why was Dearness Allowance (DA) for government employees increased from 17 to 21% in March? "The decision will be effective from January 1, 2020." So, there is retail inflation, asset price inflation and government wage inflation. And a low interest rate. A crash seems inevitable.

Too many Twists leading to loss of balance.

"The tussle between India's treasury and its central bank is as old as the central bank itself," wrote Bhattacharya, Bhatia and Devulapalli. A former economist at the Reserve bank (RBI) Anand Chandavarkar " considered RBI to have been more independent during the British Raj than in independent India". Section 58 compels the RBI board to seek "previous sanctions" from the government before formulating rules, Section 30 allows the government to "supersede" the board and Section 7 allows the government to give directions to the board, thus making the RBI an extension of the Finance Ministry. Last year, then Governor of the RBI Urjit Patel resigned prematurely because of undue pressure from political appointees to the board. In a recent book Patel wrote that "Moves to dilute a new bankruptcy law" caused friction with the government. Deputy Governor Viral Acharya, who also resigned, wrote in his book that Patel resigned because of "attempts to undermine the institution's autonomy". "The government wanted the central bank to transfer excess capital as dividend to the treasury, dilute Prompt Corrective Action norms, go slow on defaulters and sought an easy policy that would helped it borrow more, Acharya alludes." The RBI did transfer Rs 1.76 trillion in September last year. "Since independence, seven out of 10 RBI governors have been former finance ministry officials, an analysis of RBI's annual reports shows." The present incumbent Shaktikanta Das is a former IAS officer. Das has slashed interest rate aggressively by 115 basis points, down to 4% to lower borrowing cost of the government. He has announced a moratorium on repayments of loans. Since last December the RBI has conducted 'Operation Twist' in which it buys long term government bonds while selling short term ones, in an effort to bring down yields. To reduce short term yields the RBI conducts Long Term Repo Operations (LTRO) which increases liquidity in banks. Government overdraft has been eased through the Ways and Means Advances (WMA). The RBI is forbidden from financing government spending directly but it has "made some discreet bond purchases in the secondary market", wrote Beniwal and Nag. The RBI conducted dollar swaps with banks, but this will have to be reversed in September at which time it will need some other trick to maintain the flood of liquidity it has unleashed. Panic seems to be setting in. The GDP will shrink and India's potential output will drop, increasing the output gap, the RBI cautioned, and called for "deep-seated wide-ranging reforms to regain losses and return to the path of sustainable economic growth". To guard against risks the RBI transferred "a whopping amount of Rs 73.615 crore (Rs 736.15 billion)" to its Contingency Fund, which has risen to its highest level of Rs 2.64034 trillion. It has been buying dollars to build a buffer against a run on the rupee in case of sovereign rating downgrade. You can either serve the government, or the economy. Can't do both.

Whatever happens why do we always go down?

"Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation today said the national accounts data for the April-June quarter of the ongoing fiscal will be released on August 31." "India's GDP is likely to contract by 20 percent during the first quarter of the current fiscal on account of the Covid-19 pandemic-induced disruption, Care Ratings said." India has faced 3 economic shocks since the year 2000, wrote Niranjan Rajadhyaksha. The first was in 2008, due to the subprime crisis, the second crisis was in 2013, due to the announcement of cessation of quantitative easing by the US Federal Reserve, known as 'taper tantrum', and third one is at present, brought on by the coronavirus pandemic. However, the condition of the Indian economy was different leading up to each of these crises. Economic growth was 9.3% in 2007-08, a more anemic 5.46% in 2012-13 and a weak 4.2% in 2019-20. Inflation measured by the consumer price index (CPI) was 6.2% in August 2008, a shocking 9.63% in June 2013 and 6.58% in February 2020. The Reserve Bank (RBI) spent $50 billion to defend the rupee in 2008, but it fell from 43.79 to 49.69 against the dollar, it spent $16 billion in 2013 when the rupee fell from 53.94 to the dollar to 66.57, but this time the RBI has added $54 billion to its reserves since March 2020. "Between 27 March and 14 August this year, the foreign exchange reserves rose 12.6% to $535.25 billion," wrote Vivek Kaul. One reason is a much bigger fall in imports compared to exports. "Exports contracted 10.21% to $23.64 billion in July while imports fell 28.4% to $28.47 billion. Trade deficit was $4.83 billion compared to a $790 million surplus in June." The recent jump in the price of gold has resulted in the value of RBI's gold reserves increasing by 21.7% to $37.6 billion and foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have "net-invested Rs 77,779 crore (Rs 777.79 billion) in Indian stocks. Assuming one dollar to be worth Rs 75, this means that FIIs have brought in more than $10 billion this year into India and this has ended up with RBI as foreign-exchange reserves". In 2008, high fiscal deficit restricted government spending, and in 2013, high inflation and falling rupee meant that interest rates had to be increased. This time the RBI cut interest rate by 115 basis points this year, on top of cumulative cuts of 135 basis points last year, to 4% today, while retail inflation increased to 6.93% in July, and fiscal deficit in 2019-20 was 4.59% of gross domestic product (GDP), much higher than the government's revised target of 3.8%. Which means that the RBI has exhausted its arsenal in support of the government, as shown by the grumbling about transfer of Rs 57,128 crore (Rs 571.28) from its reserves, which apparently is only 44%, and the government has to borrow Rs 12 trillion just to meet expenses, so it has no money to increase capital spending. Circumstances maybe different, but the nation suffers anyway. And, it's all created by whichever party has grabbed power. We are mere spectators. 

The end is usually sudden for a mafia boss.

After World War II the US embarked on a Cold War with the Soviet Union. It was unnecessary because "post-war Soviet Union was in no position to embark on aggressive expansionism", wrote VA Nageswaran. "Its economy was in tatters and Stalin had conceded America's dominant position in the world as the chief victor of of World War II. But, China seems to be under the impression that America, if not the entire West, is now history; if debt did not flatten the US, coronavirus would." "Influential Chinese insider-turned-dissident Cai Xia, who in an audio recording leaked in June called China's President Xi Jinping a 'mafia boss', was expelled from the Chinese Communist Party early this week," wrote The Indian Express. "A retired professor of the Central Party School of the Chinese Communist Party, Cai taught democratic principles to officials who were meant to rise in the country's power structure." "Speaking to CNN, Cai said Xi's 'reign of terror' did not come from a position of strength -- instead it exposed his deep sense of insecurity." "Cai also called for sanctions on top Chinese officials and appealed to the international community to join hands in stopping the Communist Party from 'infiltrating' global institutions and spreading Xi's 'totalitarian' ideals." "According to a report written by Anthony Klan, Wuhan scientists are believed to have been conducting research into deadly pathogens in Pakistan since 2015, after revelations surfaced last month that China and Pakistan have entered into a secret three-year agreement to expand potential bio-warfare capabilities." They have published papers of five studies on "West Nile Virus, MERS-Coronavirus, Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever Virus, the Thrombocytopenia Syndrome Virus and the Chikungunya Virus", all of whom have no treatment at present. The Communist Party (CCP) has infiltrated "business groups, professional associations, or cultural and community organizations", wrote Sandipan Deb. "Many leading Western business figures now serve as amplifiers for Beijing's message to their governments and the wider public, not least in warning of 'damaging the relationship' and the risks of retaliation when statements are made that may upset Beijing." So, is China assured of victory? "Chinese buyers have not only stopped snapping up iconic overseas assets, the coronavirus pandemic is ravaging the targets of deals that defined a headier era." Either going bankrupt or making heavy losses. "China is enduring a barrage of complaints from Europe's political and business leaders," wrote Duncan Bartlett, especially after the new security law on Hong Kong. The European Union's (EU) High Representative for foreign and security policy Josep Borrell wrote in a recent blog that China is becoming more aggressive and that democratic countries should develop a coordinated policy against China, wrote Indrani Bagchi. In recent months, Chinese officials and economists have been "discussing worst-case scenarios under which China is blocked from dollar settlements, or Washington freezes or confiscates a portion of China's huge US debt holdings". China may think it is winning but the world is refusing to play by its rules. Xi Jinping may want to be mafia boss forever but will likely lose his head. Can't come soon enough.

Asking the roadblock for solutions.

Because of the coronavirus pandemic "Economic activity continues to remain weak and will lead to a 6.1 percent contraction in India's GDP in the current fiscal, a foreign brokerage said." India's economy also contracted in 1957-58, in 1965-66, in 1972-73, and, for the last time, in 1979-80, with agriculture growth also falling on each occasion, wrote Harish Damodaran. This is the first time that agriculture is expected to grow while the general economy will shrink, the only question being by how much. The problem is that this growth comes with distortions in markets because of the fall in demand due mainly to closure of restaurants and hotels. Agriculture has been growing at over 3% in the last six years and "A big contributor to this is growth in the livestock and fishing sub-sectors, which posted around 8% and 11% annual increases between 2013-14 and 2018-19 respectively," wrote Prof Himanshu. Between April and June this year, sale of chickens fell by 35-40%, eggs by 15-20% and sale of fish and seafood fell as well. Other businesses are also feeling the pain. "Now, according to a survey done by the state-run National Small Industries Corp , about 90% of the country's small businesses -- estimated at over 63 million -- have resumed operations after India's lockdown, but a vast majority are operating well below their capacity," wrote an editorial in the Mint. "They remain strapped for cash, weighed down by logistical challenges, and painfully short of orders." "Businesses have been generous with suggestions -- everything from putting money in the hands of the consumer to higher government spending. Industry bodies have been lobbying for goods and services tax (GST) rate cuts, which in theory could translate into demand in the short term," wrote Gautam Das. Over 100 factories started producing N95 face masks during the pandemic but the government banned exports while allowing imports free of duty. As a result factories are running at 20-30% capacity but still there is oversupply. Though India has improved in the World Bank's ease of doing business from number 142 to number 63 last year, "India continues to be a world beater in terms of bureaucratic 'killer apps'," which "trip business folk at every step," wrote R Jagannathan. "A staffing services firm, TeamLease, released a report in July pointing out that companies have to grapple with over 1,500 laws, 69,000 compliances, and 7,000 filings at various levels of government." Not just contraction, India is facing stagflation, which is a combination of stagnation with inflation, and will need a long list of structural reforms to get back to 7% growth, wrote Sudipto Mundle. Even so it will take a long time. Anything that takes time is out. Elections will come sooner.

The wisdom of Ankhi Das.

In his testimony to the US Congress, CEO of Facebook Mark Zuckerberg said that Facebook's Community Standards policy "on hate speech bans efforts to exclude people from political participation", prohibits "threats of violence relating to voting", and prohibits "calls to action or statement of intent to bring weapons". Unfortunately, these rules do not apply to India. "On Friday, a Wall Street Journal report revealed how Facebook's Ankhi Das, its powerful director of public policy for India, South Asia and Central Asia allegedly 'opposed applying hate speech rules against a controversial Telangana politician belonging to the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) -- T Raja Singh and at least three other' figures associated with party and its ideology," reported The Economic Times. "The WSJ report stated quoting 'current and former employees' that Das allegedly told 'staff members that punishing violations by politicians from Mr (Narendra) Modi's party would damage the company's business prospects in the country, Facebook's biggest global market by number of users'." Ankhi Das implying that hate speech rules do not apply in India and the government is vengeful led TK Arun to ask, "Why is BJP not bristling at what Facebook's Ankhi Das has to say about BJP leaders and the BJP government?"  "After about a quarter of a century (1990-2014) of relative calm, the governor's role and powers have again become a controversial issue in Indian politics," wrote Rakhahari Chatterji. "During the last few years, the governors of Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Kerala, Maharashtra and, of course, West Bengal have played their roles in such a way as to make them highly controversial..." "The best defence offered for the partisan actions of these constitutional authorities is to engage in whataboutery by claiming that they were following the hoary traditions set by the Congress," wrote Rajdeep Sardesai. "In a sense, this is further proof of the creeping Congressification of the BJP in the Modi-Shah era, of how a self-proclaimed party with a difference is now a party of absolute power." Rumors abound of state legislators being offered $2.25-3.75 million to switch sides in Rajasthan, wrote Sadanand Dhume.
While no party is innocent, "With its bottomless pockets, these days the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party plays destabiliser-in-chief while Congress struggles to keep its state governments intact." In December 2019, there were protests all across India, mainly led by women, against the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA). Many died in police firings and after a hate speech by a politician there were riots in North Delhi when Hindutva mobs ran riot. A peaceful sit-in by women at Shaheen Bagh in Delhi was the main thorn in the flesh. On 24 May, Modi announced a total lockdown with just 4 hours notice when the number of cases was around 500. Public health experts later said that the lockdown was imposed without taking their advice. On 17 August, the BJP announced that over 50 Muslims from Shaheen Bagh joined the party. Ankhi Das understands the swamp. All stink the same.

Sanctions on non-existent terrorists.

Our friendly neighbor Pakistan revealed, "Underworld don Dawood Ibrahim, one of the most wanted in India, is living in Karachi, according to Pakistan government's document." "The document that revealed Dawood's location was related to a list of 88 terrorists that were sanctioned by Pakistan government. His address on the document is White House, Karachi." "Soon after issuing a list bearing the name of Dawood Ibrahim as a designated terrorist along with his address in Karachi and details of his passports, Pakistan on Saturday denied his presence on its soil. It said there is no admission that Dawood Ibrahim is in Pakistan." Dawood is not in Pakistan, but if he is, then he will be sanctioned. Why this childish charade? Because, "The Paris-based Financial Action Task Force (FATF) put Pakistan on the grey list in June 2018 and asked Islamabad to implement a plan of action by the end of 2019, but the deadline was extended later due to Covid-19 pandemic." So, Pakistan has "imposed tough financial sanctions on 88 banned terror groups and their leaders, including Hafiz Saeed, Masood Azhar and Dawood Ibarahim", although none of them maybe in Pakistan. Will the FATF swallow this chicanery? Most likely. Taliban leader Mullah Omar died in a Karachi hospital in 2013, but Pakistan kept it a secret for two years, until Afghanistan announced it in 2015. "The US long suspected Pakistan of sheltering Mullah Omar and even confronted then President Asif Ali Zardari in 2011 over intelligence inputs that the one-eyed Taliban supremo was being treated at a Karachi hospital, according to media report." Why no sanctions on Pakistan when the Taliban has killed hundreds of US and Nato troops in Afghanistan? Because, then president of the US Barack Obama could announce killing of Osama bin Laden on 2 May 2011. Obama won reelection in 2012 by defeating Mitt Romney. In 2019, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan confirmed the best known secret that "Pakistan's spy agency Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) provided the United States with leads that helped them find and kill Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden". Not just intelligence, local people talk of the army forming a cordon around bin Laden's house to prevent any interference from anyone. Obama decided to reward Pakistan with F16 jet fighters. F16 jets were  used against the Indian Air Force in February last year by Pakistan. Pakistan is in trouble with long-time friend and ally Saudi Arabia which has decided to end preferential oil exports to it. When Crown Prince Mohamed Bin Salman refused to meet Pakistan Army Chief Qamar Javed Bajwa in Riyadh recently, foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi rushed to Beijing in panic. Ominously for India, "It is no longer Pakistan seeking Chinese support for its adventurism as much it is the other way around," wrote Retd Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain. A failed state supported by a rogue state. Will they perish? We certainly hope so.

The effects of Pushmepullyou economic policies.

"Concerns over persistently high inflation dominated discussions at the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy committee (MPC) 4-6 August meeting that kept policy rates unchanged, minutes released on Thursday showed." RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das would like to give some more time "for the cumulative 250 points reduction in policy rate since February 2019 to seep into the financial system and further reduce interest rates and spreads". Maybe it is the seeping that is causing the rise in inflation. "The inflation generating process (IGP) is poorly understood everywhere," wrote VANageswaran. "For developing countries like India, food prices are an important part of IGP." Higher inflation will stimulate growth, he says. RBI showed inflation expectation of households has increased. "Three-month and one-year ahead median inflation expectations rose by 190 and 120 basis points, respectively, over the previous round," the RBI said. High food prices are good for farmers who get higher returns for their produce. "India cannot achieve 9-10 percent growth without revolution in the farm sector Niti Aaoyog CEO Amitabh Kant said." Because, although agriculture contributes just over 17% to the GDP, it provides jobs to 53% of the population in India. So, on the one hand, the government raises support prices of crops whose prices have crashed due to bumper production, while on the other, it imported tur dal last year in June and 100,000 tonnes of onions in November to cool retail prices. "India has now reached a stage in which surplus management has become a major challenge. We need to move now to policy strategies that ensure sustained farmers' income alongside reasonable food prices for consumers," Das said. Surplus is generated by the policy of minimum support price, which means government buying articles of food at prices higher than the market price. Consumption of food in India is lower than international standards so higher consumption could push prices up, wrote Roshan Kishore. One way of keeping a lid on inflation would be let the rupee appreciate against the dollar which will bring down the cost of imports. Total imports in 2019-20 was estimated at $598.61 billion, so a stronger rupee will cool prices. Instead the RBI has been buying dollars, higher than all the central banks in Asia, which weakens the rupee. India's foreign exchange reserves soared to a record $538.191 billion before dropping slightly to $535.252 billion in the week ending 14 August. The government could reduce prices by reducing transport costs by passing some of the fall in the international price of oil to consumers, but that would add to the fiscal deficit which is already threatening to explode out of control. Contradictory policies by the government and the RBI means that the last consumption survey conducted in 2017-18 "showed a decline in consumption expenditure in rural areas while it barely increased in urban areas. The net result was a rise in overall poverty." Dr Dolittle's Pushmepullyou was meant for children. Not meant for economic policies.

There can really be no comparison.

"Using spurious arguments to tarnish Prime Minister Narendra Modi", and "With Trump detested by US Democrats and western liberal opinion in general, the opposition in India contrives to equate Modi with Trump variously by claiming absurdly that Modi shares Trump's world view and politics," wrote Kanwal Sibal. Trump has "rejected multilateralism, repudiated signed pacts," but Modi "pursues India's interests on diverse platforms, including RIC, BRICS and SCO". The gross domestic product (GDP) of the US is over $21 trillion, while that of India is around $2.9 trillion. The US is to spend $732 billion on its defense, more than the combined spending of the next ten countries, including India. Finally, the US is a major power in NATO, which has a total of 30 members committed to supporting each other, and has no hostile neighbors, whereas Pakistan to India's west is the 'iron brother' of China, in the north, Nepal's communist Prime Minster KP Oli is in office with the support of China and the overwhelming victory by the Rajapaksa brothers in Sri Lanka's recent elections could mean greater Chinese presence in the Indian Ocean. So, Trump deals from a position of strength while we are weak, economically and militarily, and surrounded by outright or potentially hostile neighbors. We can't even get China to return territory it recently occupied in Ladakh. Modi cannot be Trump externally even if he wants to. Internally, it is another matter. President Donald Trump has threatened to slap new taxes on American companies like Apple to dissuade them from moving their manufacturing bases from China to countries like India and Ireland instead of the US amidst the Covid-19 pandemic." Modi has launched his own idea of making India great, by issuing a call for 'Atmanirbhar', which could mean 'self sufficiency' or 'self relaiance', and is as old as independent India, wrote Udit Mishra. "For starters, import substitution industrialisation (ISI), which entails progressive replacement of imports by domestic production, is precisely the strategy we had pursued till 1991," wrote Prof Arvind Panagariya. Also, "we are proceeding with Phased Manufacturing Program (PMP)", which we pursued "during the licence permit raj era". Didn't work then, won't work now. "The United States is self-reliant not because it makes everything within its borders, but because it can purchase or make everything it wants, and more," wrote Nitin Pai. By withdrawing from world trade India risks becoming irrelevant. In the 1980s licenses for manufacture of color televisions were tightly controlled because curvature picture tubes were imported from Japan or Germany, wrote Gautam Das. As a result, there was a long waiting list and a 51 cm set could cost Rs 35,000. Recently, the government changed its import policy of color TVs from 'free' to 'restricted'. "Raising the country's share in world trade, taking advantage of the current global environment and the relocation of manufacturing out of China, requires greater trade liberalisation, not less," wrote an editorial in the Indian Express. Comparing with Trump is silly. It's like comparing an elephant with an elephant shrew.

Is it wrong to be happy with nothing?

"The economy sustained an increasing pace of recovery through August so far after a prolonged period of plateauing trends in July, according to a Nomura note on Monday." A Mood of the Nation Survey (MOTN) suggests, "As many as 72% of its respondents felt that the Narendra Modi government has handled the economy well. The approval rating of the Prime Minister, at 78%, is reported to be at its highest ever," wrote Prof Tulsi Jayakumar. On the contrary, a survey by the Reserve Bank (RBI) showed consumer and business confidence down, lower capacity utilization, higher raw material inventory, and 32 experts predicted contraction of the real gross domestic product (GDP), consumer spending, investment and total gross value added by the economy's three major sectors. The two surveys are divergent because people value the present more than the future, wrote Jayakumar. "Domestic and international air traffic to and from India may decline by at least 50% in the current financial year because of the Covid-19 pandemic, causing job losses and force airlines to ground aircraft", said an official note. How many airlines will go bankrupt we are not told. "A sea of people, who have lived in overseas locations for a while, especially in West Asia, were choosing to return home," the Mint has found. The Kerala government estimates that 254,000, out of 500,000 who had registered for repatriation, have returned, and are being forced to work for a fraction of what they were earning abroad. The situation is also dismal for those within India who were earning more than $10 (about Rs 750) per day and are now having to look for menial jobs in and around their villages. "VRL Logistics Ltd, which owns the largest fleet of commercial vehicles in India, won't buy new trucks and will get rid of old ones to rein in repair costs amid nascent recovery in demand." The company is reducing the size of its fleet by 700 trucks because of slow orders. "Stressed power assets resolved in the last 18 months are unable to generate adequate cash as the pandemic has reduced demand and made debt servicing difficult, leaving lenders worried about resolution of more such projects with an outstanding debt of Rs 90,000 crore (Rs 900 billion)." Banks will see a rise in bad loans. So why are Indians so happy with the government despite economic slowdown and loss of income? Because we are happy with a lot less than others, wrote Chetan Bhagat. India's per capita income is $2,000 per year which is $5.5 (Rs 412.50) per day. That amount of money can buy two meals and enough entertainment on smartphones to keep us happy. No jobs, no money, but Indians are cheering Kamala Harris. Modi can relax.   

What use is economics if it doesn't help us?

"The first ever monetary policy committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has held its last meeting," wrote V Anantha Nageswaran, who is not impressed with "the stranglehold of inflation targeting (IT) on our policy-framework and our mindsets". "India's retail inflation rose to 6.93% in July on higher food prices", while the MPC cut the repo rate, which forms the basis of interest paid by banks on our tern deposits, to 4%. This means savers get less interest on their money than the rate of price increases, which means their money is losing value. Not much evidence of inflation targeting there. While conceding that "High inflation acts as a tax on the poor," he feels that "we need a basket of goods and services from which it is calculated to be aligned with what they consume". Surely India has many statisticians who can update the basket regularly to provide clearer information on inflation. "Madhu Sehrawat and AK Giri (2015) found the threshold level of inflation (above which there is an adverse impact on economic growth) to be 6.75% for India". The target of consumer inflation was set by the government at 4%, plus/minus 2%, giving the MPC a range between 2-6%. If the MPC fails to keep it within such a wide range, what is the guarantee that the MPC will be able to maintain the rate at 6.75%? Contradicting Nageswaran, Rajrishi Singhal wrote, "RBI has slashed rates severely, poured inordinate liquidity into the system and indulged in extraordinary regulatory forbearance." "RBI governors have even used the term 'heavy lifting' to describe their unfair burden." "The MPC framework governed by the RBI Act, which also lays down the composition of the search committee, cabinet secretary, RBI governor, economic affairs secretary and three external experts handpicked by the government," which means it is packed with government agents so that, "the last MPC's voting patterns clearly revealed the government nominee's identity and policy stance". So why does Nageswaran recommend that we need to revisit the target and range of inflation? Because high inflation helps the government. The government collects goods and services tax (GST) on everything we buy, so the higher the prices the more money it gets. When prices rise, people demand higher wages on which they have to pay income tax, with huge surcharge of up to 37% on those earning Rs 50 million and more. Finally, the government is the largest borrower, with a borrowing target of Rs 12 trillion this year. Hence, a low rate of interest lowers the cost of borrowing for the government, while high inflation reduces the value of the rupee and, hence, the value of total debt of the government. When talking about economic growth, these economists mean growth in nominal GDP, which ignores inflation and helps the government, when they should be focusing on the real GDP which helps the people. Even if they are members of the Economic Advisory Council to Prime Minister. Else, economics becomes collusion.   

Seems like we are back to Indira Gandhi, doesn't it?

Ardent cheerleader Anil Padmanabhan analysed Prime Minister Narendra Modi's "near 90-minute address from the ramparts of the Red Fort" on India's Independence Day. It was the usual stuff about "farmers, the poor, small scale industry, women and the middle-class". Investment in infrastructure is to be the way to revive the economy. Modi did not reveal how he will finance new investment, with falling tax collections and fixed revenue expenditure threatening to push fiscal deficit out of control, wrote Vivek Kaul. Nearly 50 years back, Indira Gandhi won a landslide victory in elections in 1971 with the slogan of "Garibi Hatao", which means 'remove poverty'. Modi announced Rs 6,000 handout to every farmer just before elections in May 2019. Migrant workers, who returned to their villages due to the sudden shutdown on 24 March due to the coronavirus, are facing destitution because of lack jobs in rural areas, wrote Shashi Shekhar. Those who took loans from microfinance institutions are having to sell their possessions or borrow from local moneylenders at exorbitant interest rates to repay their loans, wrote Sayantan  Bera. Modi won a resounding victory last year partly due to airstrikes on terrorist camps in Balakot. Gandhi permanently liberated East Pakistan, which became today's Bangladesh, in December 1971, and forced nearly 93,000 Pakistani troops to surrender. Gandhi nationalized all banks in 1969, which gave her control of all money deposited in banks, while Modi took all our cash, forcing us to queue for hours to withdraw small amounts of money from banks, when he demonetized Rs 1,000 and Rs 500 notes on 8 November 2016. Gandhi used money from nationalized banks to give loans to people. "Janardhan Poojary, her finance minister in 1982, announced a loan mela whereby people could get loans, without offering any collateral, at subsidised rates of interest." Bad loans soared in banks. Last year Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced 'loan melas' in more than 400 districts across India to kick-start the economy because the rate of growth of the economy has been falling from 8.3% in 216-17, to 7% in 2017-18, to 6.1% in 2018-19 and then to 4.2% in 2019-20, the last financial year. Growth rate of India's gross domestic product (GDP) averaged around 4% during Gandhi's rule although there was greater volatility. Although India fell behind the rest of Asia, agriculture grew, poverty fell and bank deposits grew during the Gandhi years. Non-performing assets (NPAs) in banks grew. NPAs may rise to over 14% this year because the Reserve Bank (RBI) has declared a moratorium on loan repayments. Gandhi won four general elections, Modi has won two so far. Gandhi declared Emergency in June 1975, which lasted for 21 months. No one knows what will happen when the country starts to get back to normal by the end of next year. If NPAS shoot up, lending stops, businesses are taken to bankruptcy courts, unemployment soars and the GDP tanks will Modi declare an Emergency before elections in 2024? The similarities with Indira Gandhi have been stark so far.      

China and Iran, natural partners.

Three days back the United Arab Emirates established diplomatic ties with Israel in a phone call with US President Donald Trump, in return for which Israel will suspend annexation of land in the West Bank. "The agreement will include establishing embassies and exchanging ambassadors, investments into the Israeli economy, trade, direct flights between Tel Aviv and Abu Dhabi, an investment in Israeli efforts to develop a coronavirus vaccine -- as first reported in the Jerusalem Post last month -- and cooperation in matters of energy and water." This is not the first peace deal between Israel and an Arab state. In 1979, Israel signed a peace treaty with Egypt brokered by then President Jimmy Carter. As a result, Egypt President Anwar Sadat was assassinated by the Muslim Brotherhood in 1981. In 1994, Israel reached a peace accord with Jordan. This followed the Oslo Accords in 1992 and 1993 between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), following which "Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat shook hands". Rabin was assassinated for this in 1995 by Yigal Amir who belonged to the far-right Jewish group Eyal. "Just go down the scorecard, and you see how his deal affects every major party in the region -- those with pro-American, pro-moderate Islam, pro-ending-the-conflict-with-Israel-once-for-all camp benefiting the most and those in the radical pro-Iran, anti-American, pro-Islamist permanent-struggle-with-Israel camp all becoming more isolated and left behind," wrote Thomas L Friedman. As expected, Iran and Turkey condemned the deal, with Turkey vowing never to forget or forgive "this hypocritical behavior" by the UAE and Iran called it a "stab in the back" for all Muslims. On 2 August, the UAE commissioned one of four reactors in the Arab world's first nuclear power plant at Barakah, built with South Korean technology. The significance will not have been lost on Iran which is just across the Gulf. On 8 August, Iranian forces approached several tankers in the Persian Gulf and "boarded a Liberian-flagged tanker Wila as it was approaching the Khor Fakkan anchorage in the UAE". On 13 August, the US "successfully seized Iranian fuel from four tankers sailing to Venezuela". Both Iran and Venezuela are under US sanctions. On 11 August, 2,700 tonnes of ammonium nitrate exploded in a warehouse at Beirut port, killing at least 200 people and injuring thousands. Since the explosion, angry people have been protesting against the government, demanding complete change of those in power. Since Iran's proxy militia Hezbollah controls power in Lebanon, and was in charge of the port, it has been blamed for the explosion, in a further blow to the regime in Tehran. Iran not only finds it difficult to sell its oil, but is finding it difficult to buy food and medicines as banks and companies in other countries are afraid to take its money for fear of violating US sanctions. So, Iran has reached an agreement with China, the nation which has enslaved Muslim Uighurs and forced their women to have abortions. No stab in the back there. And, Iran is ruled by Ayatollahs.

The price of restrictions.

Amazon India's Prime Day sale "turned out to be the single biggest two-day promotional event for 91,000 small- and medium sized sellers on the e-commerce platform this year, its top executive said." "More than 4,000 small sellers crossed sales of Rs 10 lakh (Rs 1 million), while 209 sellers became crorepatis (those earning more than Rs 10 million), Amit Agarwal, country head of Amazon, told ET in an interview." "Personal computing, large appliances, kitchenware and smartphones were the top-selling categories in terms of value, while apparel and pantry sold the most in terms of units, during the two-day sale." Whether this is an example of 'revenge buying', which was seen in Guangzhou province of China, after its coronavirus lockdown was lifted, we do not know. "Months of lockdown have altered the habits of Indian consumers," reported Bloomberg. Apart from health products and disinfectants, "Searches for white goods including juicers, mixers, microwaves and toasters quadrupled in July. Companies such as IFB Industries Ltd have suspended new orders for dishwashers because they can't keep up with demand." Whether this will continue once domestic helpers are back at work remains to be seen. "According to official estimates, more than four million people are employed as domestic helpers, often for very little money, in middle-class and affluent Indian homes. Unofficial estimates put that number at a whopping 50 million." Companies are reporting a slump in profits but these are beating expectations. "While aggregate net income of 47 NSE Nifty 50 Index members slumped 40% in the quarter ended June from a year ago, nearly two-thirds of these companies met or exceeded estimates, data compiled by Bloomberg show," wrote Ishika Mookerjee. "Exports contracted 10.21% (year on year) to $23.64 billion in July while imports fell 28.4% to $28.47 billion. Trade deficit was $4.83 billion compared to a $790 million surplus in June." This despite, the price of crude oil at around $40 per barrel in July this year, compared to over $60 per barrel in July last year. Taking advantage of low import cost of oil, the government hugely increased taxes on fuel to boost revenue, so that around 70% of the price we pay at pumps consists of taxes. However, demand for fuel declined in July. "Diesel consumption, which accounts for about two-fifths of India's overall fuel usage and is widely used for transportation as well as for the country's irrigation needs, fell to 5.52 million tonnes last month from 6.31 million tonnes in June." Frustrated by the rising price of diesel farmers are resorting to altering their irrigation pumps to run on cooking gas which is much cheaper. Much less taxes for the government but much more environment friendly. "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) board on Friday approved a dividend payout of Rs 57,128 crore (Rs 571.28 billion) to the government for the current financial year." This is what it earns through seigniorage and open market operations. Huge as it may seem, this payout is unlikely to plug the hole in government finances, wrote Anirban Nag. The only sector which saw a boom is cannabis production, which is banned in India, but legal in other countries, earning huge taxes. Stupidity has a price.   

We'll pay if you give us a little of what you get.

"PM Narendra Modi on Thursday launched the platform for 'Transparent Taxation -- Honoring the Honest' aimed at easing compliance and expediting refunds, benefiting honest taxpayers. Three main features of the platform are faceless assessment, faceless appeal and taxpayers' charter, Narendra Modi announced." The charter is full of good intentions: taxpayers must provide full information and pay full taxes, in return for which, she will receive courteous treatment. First, every citizen should expect courtesy from politicians and civil servants because they are paid from our taxes, which makes us their employers. Second, there is no mention of unemployment benefits, healthcare or pensions for paying our taxes. Politicians, on the other hand, have awarded themselves handouts worth millions of rupees, including Rs 2,000 just to sign the parliament's register. What he does after signing we are not allowed to know. If they lose the next election they get Rs 20,000 per month, free travel and healthcare, including spouse, for life. The prime minister gets free luxury bungalow in Lutyens Delhi, pension, free travel, free healthcare, free electricity and water for life. Former US presidents do not get free house and free travel for life. "A decent salary, a section of the political class argues, incentivises honesty and integrity in public life," wrote DK Singh. They get paid for trying to be honest but we face threats with courtesy. "Five members of parliament (MPs) grew over 1000% richer -- among them Congress' Jyotiraditya Scindia -- and 95 grew over 100% richer between the Lok Sabha elections of 2014 and 2019." "A US Congressman gets Rs 9.7 lakhs as basic salary, about Rs 4.3 lakhs more than what a member of UK's House of Commons gets -- that is excluding perks and allowances," is the reason provided by our lot. Politicians in the US have the hazard of being sent to prison if they commit a crime, whereas here in India, "Out of the 539 winners analysed in Lok Sabha 2019, 233 MPs have declared criminal cases against themselves." Criminals are chosen by political parties because they have the illicit money to bribe voters and the thugs to intimidate opponents, and people vote for them because criminals can get civil servants to deliver services without bribes. "While there will always be citizens who see taxes as extortionist, to be paid only in fear of being hauled up and penalized, the government has done well to emphasize its own end of the bargain for the first time in such an explicit manner," wrote an editorial in the Mint. Extortion, if explained, still remains extortion. If the government really wants people to pay huge taxes, 30% of what we pay should be invested in pension funds and to pay for health insurance for life, with cover for spouse. The more you pay the higher the pension and health cover. Taxpayers will pay happily. Extortion with a smile does not pay for old age or cancer treatment. Money does.     

Is there enough to plug the holes?

"India's economy was weak in 2019, but appeared to be near a trough," wrote Prachi Mishra. Just as recovery was starting came the coronavirus pandemic. "The good news is that global recovery has already begun, and global GDP is rising." The Indian economy is also expected to rebound after a deep contraction in the April-June quarter but "we struggle to see any domestic fundamental forces to drive India's growth ahead". In its last meeting on 6 August, the Reserve Bank (RBI) kept interest rate unchanged at 4%, in expectation of rising consumer inflation in the second quarter. All eyes are now on the government to see what kind of stimulus it will provide to get the economy going again. "Businesses are pinning hopes on more demand-boosting measures from the government, including ramping up the execution of infrastructure projects, more economic reforms and a goods and services tax (GST) rate cut if other steps fail to revive consumption." "Essentially, the economy runs on twin engines: consumption and investment," wrote Anil Padmanabhan. "Consumer confidence fell to a record low in India last month as citizens grew more pessimistic about their jobs, incomes and spending, a survey from the central bank showed." "The survey shows that consumers don't expect an increase in their discretionary spending for the next year," wrote Aparna Iyer. "Analysts hope that the villages generate spending faster than urban centers, given the upbeat outlook on agriculture." But, just as the virus is spreading in the countryside, "In two dozen small towns and villages visited by Reuters reporters in recent weeks, people have largely given up social distancing and masks after months of sticking to the rules, believing the virus is not such a threat." To support local industries Prime Minister Narendra Modi has come up with the policy of 'Atmanirbhar', which means 'self reliance'. E-commerce companies Amazon and Flipkart are hoping for sales of up to $600 million this week. For the first time Amazon beat Flipkart in smartphone sales, grabbing 47% of the market. Amazon is a US company and Flipkart is owned by Walmart. "Chinese smartphones and electronic brands saw sales rise by double digits from the year earlier in sales on Amazon and Flipkart", with vendors running out of stock. Even for brands made in India, "The reality check for Made-in-India smartphones, a major focus of official drive on 'self-reliance', is the value of components sourced abroad is around 85% of a device's cost." Fuel demand fell by 11.7% in July compared to a year ago, showing weakness in business activity. There is unanimous consensus that the government needs to spend more, But, "The fiscal deficit for April-June touched Rs 6.62 trillion, It is already 82% of the budgeted fiscal deficit for the current financial year," wrote Vivek Kaul. The government is expecting a hefty payout from the RBI this year after extracting Rs 1.76 trillion last year, wrote Anirban Nag. But, will it be enough for the enormous Okun's bucket that is India. If only we could mend the holes in the bucket.
 

Bit of this and bit of that, not much different from India.

"Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden has named Kamala Harris as his running mate -- the first black woman and South Asian American in the role." Harris is a lawyer and was "the San Francisco district attorney from 2004-2011, and the California attorney general from 2011-1017". Why did Biden pick Harris out of all contenders? Because she is 55 years old, and because her father was economics professor Donald Harris from Jamaica and mother was cancer researcher Shyamala Gopalan from India. Thus, she was chosen because she is a woman, because she is part black and part Indian and so will attract voters from both communities, because she provides youth to Biden's age at 77 years and because she is a Christian whose mother was a Hindu and is herself married to a Jew. Her choice was not about any ideology or policy but because she ticks almost all boxes, except being Muslim or transgender. "Harris also has another secret weapon: her connection to the Alpha Kappa Alpha sorority, which she joined as an undergraduate at Howard University and whose roughly 300,000 members and multi-million dollar budget could help provide fundraising and organizational might across the country." Biden was vice-president to Barack Hussein Obama, whose father was a black Muslim economist from Kenya and whose mother was a white "unreconstructed liberal", and who converted to Christianity while working as a community organizer in Chicago when he was in his twenties. India is derided because, "Caste identities and religious conflicts shape political cleavages or division of votes in India while inequality in education, income or occupation seems to play little role in determining choices the electorate makes, says a working paper by economists Abhijit Banerjee of MIT and Amory Gethin & Thomas Piketty of Paris School of Economics." "In 2014 Lok Sabha polls, more than 60% of Brahmin and nearly 50% of other forward caste voters supported BJP/other right wing parties compared to 30% of SC/ST and only 10% of Muslim voters." The other view is that Narendra Modi won the election by promising to fix the economy, creating jobs and getting rid of corruption. Similarly Donald Trump was elected president in 2016 promising to "drain the swamp". Technology companies based in Silicon Valley are pouring money into Joe Biden's campaign funds, because they have taken money from the Chinese government through front companies and are against Trump's restrictions on Huawei, TikTok and WeChat. They do not mind Chinese companies stealing US research data as long as they continue to make money. The FBI made false allegations against Trump and "The Obama administration targeted the campaign of the opposing party based on false evidence." Trump won despite all the skullduggery so the Democrats tried to impeach him on false allegations so that his administration would be paralysed. White, black, Indian, Christian, Hindu, Jew, not much different from religions and castes in India. Is it?