Monday, February 17, 2020

Will they be made to pay for bad karma?

"A revival in the GDP growth rate is key to the Indian economy." "Shukla of M&M says the biggest factor handholding the weak economy is central government spending, which went up 32% year-on-year (YoY) in the October-December quarter," wrote Suman Layak. In percentage terms India's YoY industrial growth is below those of China, South Korea, Indonesia and Russia but higher than those of Germany, South Africa, France and the US. Of course, a YoY figure depends on base effect, which means a comparison with last year's figure, and in absolute terms, a 2% growth in the US would be much larger than a 5% growth in India because the US economy is 7 times the size of India's. The government needs money to spend, which it collects through taxes, fees and through disinvestment, which means sale of public sector assets. Any shortfall is plugged by borrowing from the market, mainly banks, known as fiscal deficit. Growth, not fiscal fundamentalism, is the best antidote to a host of ills, economic and social," wrote Mythili Bhusnurmath. "In a scenario where government spending is the only game in town to keep the wheels of the economy turning, blind adherence to an arbitrary fiscal rule would have been not just unwise, but foolish." The government set a fiscal deficit target of 3.8% of GDP in this year's budget, which is higher than its initial prediction of 3.3%. Sounds reasonable. "But if we look through the accounting tricks, the full deficit is perhaps 7.5-8% of GDP, making India a world champion in fiscal profligacy," wrote SA Aiyer. The Mint compared India's economic parameters with nine other emerging market (EM) economies. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), India's fiscal deficit at 7.5%, is the joint highest, with Brazil, among EM countries, which average around 3%. At 17.1%. India's tax collection is lower than the EM average of 20.9%, which means India's debt-to-GDP ratio is second highest at 69% and interest payment is also second highest at 6% of total government spending. Naturally, India's cost of borrowing is higher than others at 6.5%. To plug the hole in revenue taxes were increased in the budget. Foreign investors are thinking of paying taxes at a lower rate in Singapore rather than the high rates in India. To save money, the Central government is not transferring adequate funds to the states as their share of the Goods and Services Tax (GST). "This failure to share revenues with the states now threatens overall development," wrote Rajrishi Singhal. The biggest asset with a total life fund of Rs 28.3 trillion is the Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) and the government hopes to raise a whopping amount of cash by selling a chunk of LIC. However, the LIC has non-performing assets (NPAs) of Rs 326.85 billion which is 7.5% of its debt portfolio. "I would never touch LIC as an investor. The government sold their unsold items to LIC and now they are selling the owner of those unsold items to us," said Shankar Sharma. Payment for bad karma.

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