Saturday, February 15, 2020

Why are they so innocent?

"In any economy, there are four sources of demand: investment, exports, government consumption expenditure, and private consumption expenditure," wrote Prof Deepak Nayyar. Exports have been stuck at around "$300 billion per year for the past six years", private final consumption expenditure is down as shown by "Consumer spending in India declined for the first time in more than four decades in 2017-18, Business Standard has reported citing a government survey that has yet not been released." To add to the misery, "Consumer sentiment in India worsened to an almost five-year low and manufacturing slack at companies widened to the most on record, indicating Asia's third-largest economy is yet to put a floor under growth, wrote Anirban Nag. As for investment, Indian banks are saddled with a "twin balance sheet problem", so they are reluctant to lend. "During H1 FY20 (first half of financial year 2019-20), more than 60% of projects contracted funding largely through external commercial borrowings (ECBs). Low global interest rates and a general unwillingness of Indian banks to lend seems to be the reason behind this," wrote Aparna Iyer. The only solution is to raise private consumption expenditure "by counter-cyclical policies that increased government expenditure " which, in turn, would reduce fiscal deficit by increasing government revenue, wrote Nayyar. Consumer food inflation was 13.63% in January, partly because of "an artificial supply shock created by the government, which has mopped up almost one-third of all production for stocks", wrote Prof Himanshu, while real wages of agricultural and non-agricultural  laborers declined. "The best way of reviving the economy lies in helping the poor increase their real incomes by spending money on social security schemes and rural infrastructure." The chief economic adviser (CEA) Krishnamurthy Subramanian shrugged off vegetable price inflation. "By July-August, I expect a convergence between headline and core inflation," he said. He did not say whether this would be because of base effect or because he is predicting a good monsoon. Those who want the government to increase spending because fiscal deficit is comfortable are living in "fantasy land, wrote SA Aiyer. "The combined deficits of the central and state governments are high enough to have caused financial meltdown in most countries." Formally the combined deficit adds up to 6%, "But if we look through the accounting tricks, the full deficit is perhaps 7.5-8% of GDP, making India a world champion in fiscal profligacy." "The risk is that India will remain in the 5-6%, slow-growth groove for some time." So, the government is not spending too little, it has spent way too much on social schemes. And its piggy bank is empty. Economists are too innocent. They believe what they are told.    

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