Tuesday, February 04, 2020

How do you cover up such a huge hole?

Criticisms of this year's budget presented by the Finance Minister (FM) on 1 February are unfair, "most commentary might simply end up reflecting inherent and pre-existing biases rather than informed analysis," wrote Prof VA Nageswaran who is a member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister. The budget improved credibility by disclosing that fiscal deficit would be 3.8% of GDP, instead of 3.3% as predicted in Budget 2019, plus extra borrowing of another 0.5% of GDP, benefited income tax payers by increasing the number of tax slabs and by promising to raise more money by selling off assets, like the Life Insurance Corporation (LIC), which has 290 million policy holders and a total life fund of Rs 28.3 trillion. The economic slowdown is not the government's fault. "The recent slowdown is not of its own making," wrote Nageswaran because, "The Economist notes that all emerging economies are experiencing a prolonged productivity slowdown, contributing to slower economic growth." He is conveniently forgetting the windfall tax revenues of over Rs 11 trillion, till November 2018, that this government received from low crude oil prices, and squandered on a plethora of social schemes, including waiver of farm loans to win election in UP. Curiously, the FM did not mention the slowdown even once, wrote Prof Shruti Rajagopalan. "In the longest budget speech ever, not once did she mention the word 'slowdown' or reference slowing growth rates, or a growth slump -- phrases now recurring in the nightmare of economists and investors focused on India." Despite all the handouts, "With food inflation hitting 14% in December 2019 and real rural wages declining for eight consecutive months (latest data available till October), rural India is among the worst hit by the current economic slowdown," wrote Kapur, Paul and Irava. The two largest schemes to help the rural poor are Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) and the Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi (PM-KISAN) accounting for 1% of GDP. The Budget slashed funding for MGNREGS from Rs 710 billion this financial year to Rs 615 billion next year and the food subsidy bill has been cut by a "staggering" Rs 690 billion next year, wrote Sayantan Bera. Spending on Mid Day Meal Scheme for school children was cut by Rs 11 billion this year and supplementary nutrition for children under 6 years of age was reduced by Rs 21 billion. One third of children are already stunted in India. "It is said that size matters, but the longest speech in budget history did not guarantee Nirmala Sitharaman success," wrote SSA Aiyer. The longest speech was designed to hide the lack of policies because of the enormous fiscal hole, wrote Puja Mehra. The FM did her best to cover up for her boss, the Prime Minister. What is he going to do?

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