Not just the economy, it's the Constitution, stupid.

Political scientist Prof Rachel Bitcofer predicts that "the Democrats are a near lock for the presidency in 2020, and are likely to gain House seats and have a decent shot at retaking the Senate". She believes that there are no swing voters. Every voter is already committed to one party and the result depends on how many supporters turn out to vote. This is contrary to the classic view that "About 55 percent of eligible voters are likely to go to the polls, and the winner is determined by the 15 percent or so of 'swing voters' who flit between the parties." She says that Obama won in 2008 despite losing independent voters and the running mate will be more important for Democrats than the candidate for president in this year's election. Obama got 95% of black votes in the 2008 election compared to just 4% for John McCain. In 2010, the Republicans regained control of the House by flipping 63 seats held by Democrats, and won 6 seats in the Senate although Democrats kept control with 51 seats plus two independents. In 2012, 93% of blacks voted for Obama compared to only 6% for Mitt Romney, although the difference in median earnings between white and black men was the same in 2015 as it was 50 years back, found a study. The booming economy, high consumer confidence, GDP growth and low unemployment may not help Trump because his disapproval rating is consistently higher than approval, wrote Dylan Scott. "The system is rigged. It was rigged from the outset, quite intentionally, to favor small states. Under current political conditions, that's become an enormous advantage for Republicans," wrote Ian Millhiser. Why so? Because every state elects two Senators, regardless of size. So Wyoming with a population of just 567,025 gets to elect two Senators as does California with over 39 million. Then there is the electoral college, wherein each state is allotted a certain number of electors depending on population. Most states have a winner-takes-all system which means that all electors of the state go to the winner, even if the winning margin is one vote. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won 2.8 million popular votes more than Donald Trump because she got 4.3 million votes more in California alone. Trump won by getting 304 electoral college votes. If the leftist argument is to be accepted it would mean that anyone who wins California would become president. There would be no need for elections in the other 49 states. The authors of the Constitution grappled with exactly this dilemma. The US has 6.8 million unauthorized immigrants of which 2.2 million reside in California. The state has passed a law to protect illegal immigrants from deportation. If the presidential election is decided by popular vote, California will invite more illegals so that Democrats would win in perpetuity. The US would end up a one party state. Like China. The Constitution is right after all.