Friday, February 21, 2020

Can't grow if you keep uprooting them.

"Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Tuesday that several important indicators have emerged in the recent past pointing towards green shoots in the economy." She said "the size of the Indian economy increased from two trillion dollars in 2014-15 to 2.9 trillion dollars in 2019-20". Since the economy is expressed in dollars the size of the economy depends on the strength of the rupee against the dollar. Unfortunately, "Moody's slashed growth forecast for Indian economy to 5.4 percent from 6.6 percent for 2020 -- a difference of over one percentage point. The updated GDP growth estimate for 2021 is 5.8 percent, down from 6.7 percent". "The Economic Survey estimated that Indian economy would grow by 6-6.5 percent in 202-21." "Given that at present India is a $2.7 trillion economy (in 2010 constant dollar terms)" it will take 4-5 years to grow to $5 trillion even if growth accelerates " to 14-15% per year in real terms", wrote Prof Parag Waknis. Mark Aguiar and Gita Gopinath argued "that emerging economies experience frequent policy regime switches, leading to substantial volatility in trend growth", whereas in developed economies, "There is a fair degree of stability in the policy environment that businesses and individuals face, making it easier for them to form expectations and take decisions." "Prime Minister Narendra Modi's vision of making India $5 trillion economy and a global economic powerhouse by 2024-25 is 'challenging' but 'realisable'," Sitharaman said in New York in October. To achieve that, the government has been spending heavily to stimulate economic activity and increase consumer demand. "India's problem is not insufficient budget stimulus. Rather, budgets have provided huge stimulus (cloaked by budgetary fictions) for three years in a row, and yet GDP growth has kept slowing," wrote SA Aiyer. High spending was financed by increased borrowing so that fiscal deficit is "perhaps 7.5-8% of GDP, making India a world champion in fiscal profligacy". To plug the hole in its budget the government adopts increasingly strong-arm methods of extracting taxes from businesses and individuals, wrote Suman Layak. A slowing economy and the government's greed for taxes is decimating small industries. Factory owners are compelled to pay Goods and Services Tax (GST) in full as soon as they bill their customers but they get paid after at least 90 days. As a result they have to borrow to pay GST. Indian households are financing their spending by reducing savings which means banks have less money to lend. Companies are taking legal action over not getting relief on GST for expenses incurred in giving gifts to customers. A waste of time and money and delay in investment until the matter is resolved. No wonder, green shoots are very hard to find, wrote Vivek Kaul. Green shoots don't just grow, they need nurturing. The government keeps uprooting them.   

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