Friday, February 14, 2020

Can a bank unite so many nations?

President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Christine Lagarde is to undertake a strategy review on "how the ECB is likely to address persistently low inflation in the eurozone", wrote Prof Lucrezia Reichlin. Following the financial crisis in 2008, the ECB has been proactive -- introducing negative interest rate in 2014, providing the market with "forward guidance" on its future policy and inflating its balance sheet by buying assets, known as quantitative easing (QE). Inflation rate in the eruozone is expected to be 1.4% in January, up from 1.3% in December. Despite its best efforts the ECB has failed to get inflation up to around 2% which is its ideal rate. "A legacy of high unemployment, particularly in those countries that were at the forefront of the region's debt crisis last decade, is one reason why it has it has kept a lid on wage increases." Maybe the ECB should have been more aggressive at the beginning or it could be due to "inadequate coordination of fiscal, financial and monetary policy". While the ECB was increasing monetary stimulus Germany was running large budget surplus. "Global central bank governors and economists argued that Germany -- boasting the largest economy in the eurozone -- is in a position to provide fiscal stimulus but has instead opted to maintain a flush budget surplus." But German finance ministers refer to the hyperinflation in the 1920s and so are reluctant to run a deficit. "In fact, they even have a term for such conservatism, Schwarz Null, or 'black zero', meaning a balanced budget or budget surplus ('in the black')." Despite a budget "surplus in 2019 for the eighth time in a row, amounting to 49.8 billion euros ($55.4 billion)", "The 2019 full-year gross domestic product (GDP) shows a slowdown from the 1.5% growth recorded in 2018 and the 2.2% expansion seen in Germany's economy in 2017." Perhaps, the most plausible reason for the "persistently low eurozone inflation reflects structural factors such as adverse demographics, low growth expectations and the associated increase in demand for safe assets". "After 1,316 days of political turmoil, the UK now stands alone as the first nation to have ever left the European Union." However, this is the beginning of the 'transition period' during which Britain must sign a comprehensive trade deal by 31 December. Britain being the sixth largest economy in the world its exit will certainly affect Europe's economy. According to research by Bloomberg Economics Britain has already lost 130 billion pounds and will lose another 70 billion pounds by the end of this year. Europe, and especially Britain, got rich by exploiting their colonies and that kind of plunder is no longer possible, wrote Prof VA Nageswaran. European nations may not be fighting but they still do not agree with each other. The ECB can do little.

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