Monday, February 24, 2020

If a bust is inevitable, let's enjoy the boom.

"There are times when we should expect the system to reach a tipping point -- the 'Minsky Moment' -- when a boom and a bubble turn into a crash and a bust," wrote Prof Nouriel Roubini, known as "Dr Doom" for having predicted the subprime crash of 2008. "It's a scary time for the global economy," he said last year. Prof VA Nageswaran confessed that he has been like a broken clock in predicting a collapse of the stock market bubble. A broken clock shows the correct time twice in every 24 hours but he is not sure when (or if) his prediction for the stock market will prove correct. Using data for the last 200 hundred years, Aaron Closet used mathematics to predict that a major war is likely in the last 100 years and a billion people could be killed in a nuclear war in the next 1,300 years. Many things can happen in 100 years and in 1,300 years humans could be thriving on other planets. "A majority of millennials around the world believe it's more likely than not that a nuclear attack will happen sometime in the next 10 years," wrote Alex Ward. But this could be because of economic insecurity or social media pressures. There could be war between Iran and the US, there could be a pandemic of coronavirus, cyberwarfare could  escalate and climate change is accelerating, thinks Roubini. Gold prices have risen 30% as China and Russia stockpile gold, moving away from US Treasuries. "Last year was the first year in 120 years when the GDP of countries that are democracies was less than the GDP of autocracies," said former UK Foreign Secretary David Milliband. It could be because of support for terrorists in Syria, which has prolonged the suffering of Syrian people and resulted in a wave of refugees, or the unnecessary sanctions on Russia, based on fake allegations, or the racist breakup of trade alliance between democratic countries. "Pakistanis get radicalised after migrating to the UK," wrote Khaled Ahmed. "It appears that religious radicalism didn't go from Pakistan to the UK, but actually came to Pakistan from London. Al-Muhajiroun had come to Pakistan along with its British-based sister terrorist organisation, Hizb ut-Tahrir, in the mid 2000s, and recruited a number of people inside the Pakistan army till the Musharraf government banned them." Facing criticism at home for its handling of the Coronavirus the Chinese government has blamed other countries for isolating it, wrote Nayan Chanda. "China has publicly chastised countries like New Zealand for 'joining efforts to isolate the Chinese economy' under the guise of fighting to spread the virus." When democratic countries are disunited and disorganised a crisis should not be a surprise. Hopefully it will hurt baddies more than the goodies.

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