Tuesday, August 20, 2019

Who wants difficult decisions? What if they fail?

"After June quarter results, earnings estimates of a large number companies continue to be downgraded," wrote Jethmalani and Karnat. Why? "Over the last six-nine months, the sharp decline in demand for consumer discretionary spends seen initially has spread to consumer staples too. On top of this comes the deterioration in the government fiscal position that has led to constraints on its ability to increase spends on infrastructure, or provide any other form of fiscal stimulus." "There has been spike in downgrades and ratings suspensions on debt papers of listed companies in the second half of fiscal 2019, indicating a deterioration in corporate health, data from the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) financial stability report shows." Indian companies are having to "downsize and, in some cases, pull down their shutters" because of "a weakening consumer confidence, an uncertain business environment, and regulatory risks", wrote D Chaki. This all happened after the financial crisis of 2008, when "Lenders, especially public sector banks (PSBs), were encouraged to lend generously to the private sector to boost liquidity and demand," leaving them with bad loans of Rs 10.3 trillion. Contrast that with the US, where the government earned a profit of $15.3 billion from its Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) which was a bailout of banks, insurance and car companies worth $426 billion. The RBI cut the growth rate for the Indian economy from 7% to 6.9% while cutting interest rate by 35 basis points. But, according to R Sharma, "For emerging nations such as  India, 5% is the new 7%, the appropriate aspirational standard." "Now, among the world's 200 economies, just eight or one in 25 are on track to grow 7% this year. Most of those are small economies in Africa." Used to government protection, Indian companies are demanding a stimulus package from the government through increased spending, as well as lower interest rate. Apparently, the government is also thinking of a stimulus package by decreasing taxes on certain sectors, such as automobiles, and a relaxation of the fiscal deficit target by 0.5% which will allow extra spending of Rs 1.15 trillion. The fiscal deficit will go up anyway because assumptions on tax collections were wildly optimistic in the budget. The government is already committed to a stimulus through subsidies of Rs 3.02 trillion this year, which does not take into account farmers' loan waiver and MUDRA loans, which alone may total over Rs 3 trillion. Naturally, tax officials are resorting to threats and strong-arm tactics to extract as much money as they can. Biocon founder Kiran Mazumdar Shaw was warned by "a government official" not to speak about issues such as "income tax harassment". The government has managed security and subsidies much better than the economy, wrote S Chakrabarti. That is because it is easy to sacrifice soldiers and taxpayer money. Who wants responsibility for the economy?

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